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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (61014)	10/19/2000 9:32:56 PM
From: Saulamanca	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, Tis the season to be buying bottoms. Sure looks like it to me or am I just voting my pocketbook?<g> stockcharts.com[H,A]DACAYYMY[DD][PB50!B200!C20!D20,2][VC60][IUD20!LL14!LB14!LA12,26,9!LH14,3] Out of the last 50 years buying the S&P500 on or about Oct 17 and selling on or about Dec 29 has produced 41 winning trades. For some seasonal strategies: mrci.com Regards, Jim

To: HairBall who wrote (61014)	10/19/2000 10:55:12 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 99985

LG--thanks for the dates--In both those cases, the gap day and close didn't take out the prior pivot peak of the prior few day(s)just before it--these are not the types of gaps I was thinking of--I am focusing on upside gaps from near a low that close on the gap day above such prior interim pivot peak--like today and June 1-2/00 (700pts added after gap day) and Dec/99 (comparable further % movement followed)---MSFT and INTC both did the same thing today, signalling the end of the downturn as I see it. I must say that this is affecting my reading of the waves tonight......As for resting on the downtrend line, ignoring the gap for a moment, I have been anticipating a larger upwards retracment, possibly to as much as 3700 on the Comp --as a B Wave to be followed by the C into the mid 2's--in an earlier note a few days ago I referred to the March/May drop which in my view occured in 2 stages---the first stage was an 'abc' that comprised 70% of the ultimate total decline, which was followed by a sharp bear mkt rally that broke the downtrend line and recouped 56% of the drop up to that point---only to be followed by the second 'abc' that took us to the 3043 low on the Comp...sort of like a 3-3-3 double zigzag sequence----the same thing could easily happen in October/Nov where we may have simply completed only the first abc down to 3026(?) to be followed by another 56%recoup rally to 3700ish before the roof falls in again----That is the sequence that I have been anticipating----but today's gap leads me to the suspicion that this Rally may simply keep going beyond 3700 into eventually above 4260 and possibly a new high---The jury is out on this but I must say the gap has me reassessing my stance-we shall see. Long INTC and MSFT btw