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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (8833)	10/20/2000 12:25:34 AM
From: Ross	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Also disappointing - Cohu, the largest US test handler co., reported the second quarter in a row of decreasing orders. In the past few years (all I have data on), this has definitely meant we were into a major downturn. They seem to be proposing an alternative explanation. I'd like it to be true, but it would be contrary to the recent past. Any opinions? Thanks. Ross "James A. Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, ``While we are disappointed with the decline in orders in the third quarter, we are encouraged by the order strength of certain front-end semiconductor equipment companies, as back-end orders often lag the front-end. In addition, industry forecasts show growing demand for IC test handlers over the next several years. Our strong market position, broad product portfolio and product development initiatives will benefit the Company as IC handler orders strengthen. "

To: Sam Citron who wrote (8833)	10/21/2000 2:38:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

re:I thought it (today'd rally) had the signature of a bottom written all over it. Either that, or a bear rally. It will be clear in retrospect (and only then). Since the April high at 115, AMAT has had 3 failed rallies: 76 to 105 (38%) in late April 68 to 96 (41%) in late May to June 66 to 88 (33%) in August So, 40% moves is just normal random volatility, and does not indicate a change in trend. The current upmove is only 3 days old, and has only gone from 41 to 50 (22% off the bottom). Even if this move lasts a month, and goes to 57 (40% move off the latest intermediate bottom), it could still be just a false rally. I think we need to wait until it is clear that: 1. their will not be a hard landing in the economy in 2001, and, 2. semi demand is not going to soften, and current cap-ex plans are really going to happen. Of course, once the above is widely believed, the stocks will have doubled off their bottoms, so I've got to be alert and smart enough to figure this out before everyone else does. I could easily get this wrong, and be watching from the sidelines as the stocks take off. But, my current opinion is that the stocks are as likely to go up as down (next 12 months outlook), given the current market environment, semi news, and sentiment. JS@waitingfor30inAMAT.com