To: Jim McMannis who wrote (15267 ) 10/20/2000 4:26:35 PM From: quasar_1 Read Replies (1) | Respond to Monkey Darts...The anticipation of AMD losing the Mhz lead is hurting it's stock price right now. Trust me... The markets look 6-12 months out. "Assuming perfect earnings forecasting ability and using the four quarter moving total of trailing earnings for the S&P 500, as published in the Standard & Poor's Statistical Record, our decision rule was to buy two quarters before a upturn in earnings and to sell and sell short two quarters before a downturn in earnings. Suprisingly, the historical result of perfect earnings forecasting were very poor, particularly after 1973...total accumulative profit amounted to 21.47 S&P points from 1944 through 1986-only 8% of the profits of our combined price and dividend model...The maximum equity drawdown was 97.63 S&P points. These results would be devastating to virtually any investor." The market usually looks in the rear view mirror. That is why it took so long for them to notice the oil prices going up, the Euro falling, and Interest rates rising. All of these factors were in place during the great ‘BS’ rise of late '99 early '00. It wasn't until the bubble broke that these 'reasons' were conveniently trotted out. The real reasons, price begets price. The market goes up because its going up (greed) and goes down because its going down (fear). Fundamental value is usually in the lower part of the price matrix as fear is more powerful than greed (I'm going to lose everything vs. I want that new Nissan Sentra.)Intel may have mucked up in the recent past but there is a lot of anticipation that they won't muck up forever. They are hog tied by Rambus now but by their own admission RAMBUS was a mistake and they will be moving on to DDR and back to SDRAM for the P4. When you sail the Titanic, it's hard to turn around even if you see the iceberg. On the positive side it takes a really big 'berg to bring her down.The P4 will out-scale the current Athlon core. This is what Analysts are looking at. AMD had better have an answer because sooner or later the continuous reprieves from Intel may well run out...
