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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ausdauer who wrote (15839)	10/21/2000 7:38:31 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 60323

Now if a worldwide recession is coming, well... A recession can be defined as something as simple as two quarters of declining GDP. This does not mean that people stop spending. It means that people become aa little tighter with their money. The world is not coming to an end. Given Eli's past comments about demand outstripping supply for at least a few years, I don't see a recession having that big an impact on SNDK's business. Digital photography and removable flash memory are such a paradigm shift that I see SNDK's business continuing to grow well even in an economic slow down. Will photography purchases slow down? Probably a little. Will the shift to downloading digitial music slow down? Not one whit. Kids will continue to spend. Will the advent of broadband wireless slow down the migration to removable flash for storing downloads in cell phones? No way. SNDK's business will continue to grow. A recession will cause a compression in all stocks' PEs, including SNDK's. But SNDK is a misunderstood company selling at 1/3 to 1/2 it's growth rate. Our revenues are growing what, over 200% a year. Our royalties are growing what, at least 100%. (Folks, I didn't go back and look up the exact percentages. Feel free to do so.) Yet our PE on a rolling basis (4x this past Q) is 44. As the story gets out and our PEG moves up far closer to 1.0, SNDK is going to go far higher. Now, off to a beautiful midwest fall morning round of golf. Jay

To: Ausdauer who wrote (15839)	10/21/2000 11:42:30 AM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Well the theory is that business will cut some of their IT spending last. They can keep old equipment running a bit longer, defer raises and new hiring, let their old computers run a bit longer , etc. However if they keep getting new internet b2b and b2c business and more data, they must find a way to manage and store it. While there is probably some truth to this, I suspect an economic slowdown will hurt almost all companies, some a lot more than others. But this is the stock market, so a slow down isn't needed to hurt stock prices. All that's needed is the perception of a future slowdown. I think that the kind of products using SanDisk memory will be one of the first to go on the "lets wait a while" list.