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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mact who wrote (9692)	10/21/2000 2:41:55 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

i wouldnt be surprised to see CIEN into the 200's within the month... Me neither if NAZ goes over 4,000. as for telecom co's scaling back, i do not see this happening to a significant degree...co's like broadwing, williams and qwest will most likely lay people off(which qwest has already done) rather than scale back on purchases. Qwest's lay-offs are mainly rationalizing U.S. West acquisition. Williams is going to have a rough go in the capital markets. Broadwing is hiring like crazy (ads all over Austin). Regardless of the carrier's wishes and desires, the constraint will be the capital markets. The capital markets are concerned about the ultimate end-user revenue side of the equation, as well they should be. Right now William's 2007 bonds with a 10.7% coupon are quoted in the "asked" secondary market with a yield to maturity of 13.969%. Now 14% would be quite a rate to pay for a new flotation in order to buy more optical widgets, don't you think? Doesn't look like the equity market is any more attractive either for the carriers. And current yields on CLEC debt for the metro biz, sh*t, I don't even want to go there! For a very, very recent parallel on capex spending slowdowns rippling through the ranks, look at the wireless component and subsystems vendors. All the way up until this quarter they were told by their customers that all was well. Then, lo and behold, P.O.'s got pulled, reality caught up, and the stocks were slammed (actually overslammed IMO). But the component and subsystems vendors were the last to know. The system level guys kinda sorta knew, and of course the carriers knew all along, but weren't telling.