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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2358)	10/22/2000 10:38:58 AM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19633

Dale, thank you for having been a valuable contributor. I hope we'll hear from you a lot on a stock that you already have gathered substantial amount of information. For next week, I'm carrying a significant long position on STEC for earnings and coverage. All my shares were purchased between 7 and 7 1/2. I'd appreciate your read on the company if you can find the time before Tues night because I hope to be on the CC Wednesday morning. I've significantly adjusted my portfolio in favor of the long side last week. The short-to-long ratio in my portfolio came down from 2.5 at the start of last week to about 0.8 now. At 3500, I don't see much upside for the Nasdaq through the end of Nov. I suspect we'll see some consolidation next week. For as long as oil prices remain at lofty levels, stocks will continue to be pressured. Regards, Tom

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2358)	10/22/2000 12:15:03 PM
From: Paul A	Respond to of 19633

wow- Cant even catch up around here.. Threads gotten crowded :) I noticed everyone seems to be a bear lately.. Probably one of the things that saved us last week when the market looked horrendous.. MSFT alone had such a huge short position, and they held right into earnings only to give it all back in a day or so :) But This wasnt the case over the last few years, so I think the addition of all these new shorters is actually extremely healthy for the market. Alot of folks on the long side have accumulated serious loses over the last few months and thats not going to be repaired over night.. I think we will actually see the damage alot more going into next year and really dont see a return of the wild bull.. Just a personal opinion but I see an economy which has gotten a bit out of hand.. Alot of us live in a protected environment where we dont see the reality of what is really happening in America.. Automobiles cost more than the average salary in most states.. Homes cost about double what the did in my area when I was looking 5 years ago.. (and they werent cheap 5 years ago)Energy- of course we know that story.. Its a rich/poor environment and middle class has disappeared.. The rich have gotten richer and the poor have just dug a deeper hole they cannot get out of.. When is enough enough? Anyhow- I trade from day to day.. I really dont make long term investments since I have little if any faith that any of this is based on rational, fundamentals anyhow.. People are lining their pockets, and everyone, including the people in the fed IMO are simply just coasting along in auto-drive, not certain what comes next but by all means- they make sure the data shows inflation in check.. all is cool.. never been here before but its all just 'cool'.. I personally don't like MSFT earnings for what my opinions worth.. YHOO earnings are a complete joke, but thank god the stock price finally reflects that. Intel can just keep selling investments to make up for a dramatic slowdown and everyone will give them the thumbs up.. and we can all just keep doing 50-100% returns daytrading, 401k plans will keep returning 20%, and we all will be wealthy forever and ever.. ALl the poor people will eventually make enough to pay those credit cards and auto loans off.. Anyhow- Im no longer a part of the 'short to zero' clan.. I go either with the bulls or bears, and just go with the flow.. But my personal opinion is that eventually the markets will reflect what im seeing in the world around me..and if Im correct, next year and the following year will be one helluva a boring, bear market.. If we get very bullish and the market rages higher and higher I think it will just be that much more devastating when reality hits. Again- im not that wise to long term market movements, and I cant hold a serious debate about wether or not inflation data is giving us a clear indication for either bull or bear arguements, but I CAN tell you that living in America has become entirely different than what it was before this market became 'all that'.. and although most people reading this message have a comfortable bank account, food for the children, and a nice sports car or two sitting in the driveway- I can tell you that the real world is not so perfect.. Most people dont make enough in a year to pay of their credit cards, let alone mortgage, auto loan, doctor bills,... One thing you can tell from my postings on the subject of rich and poor is I have alot of animosity towards some of the new found money in this country.. There are people busting their back ends trying to make their business work, or ditch diggers or electricians or plumbers working just to put food on the table.. and yet right here on s/i we see day after day criminals, hypers, analysts who push stocks and dump them while they are live on national TV pushing it higher.. all cheating and stealing to get wealthy and there is little if any accountability.. The fittest of our species are no longer coming out on top.. the whole normal process has been thwarted by rampant greed on top of greed... So long as you have the right friends.. and we all sit back and just watch it all unfold.. As my buddy Roger Waters says in a very obscure rock and roll album- 'Cant you see? it all makes perfect sense.. expressed in dollars and cents, how chilling it is..' sorry folks.. Early Sunday.. Ill return to my senses tomorrow.. in the meantime, just tolerate me.. I tend to go off on this little 'babbles' every so often.. p.s.- strongly recommend anyone who is bored, go out and look for an album title 'amused to death' by Roger Waters.. May take a few joints and a long Sunday afternoon before you can start understanding it but it sure is a pretty grim reminder of just how money has shaped the entire world.. and just how fragile money really is if we give too much rope to the people who have it. :(

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2358)	10/23/2000 11:22:57 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

In regards to the permabear chatter prevalent on SI...a thought I had was that the availability of information, greater number of savvy traders, and a general awareness of what puts the market where it is (ex: for the Naz to be at 5000 we needed absolute trash like RHAT to be at 150; we now have better trash such as HAND where it is now) all these things have made it such that more people can have the bearish view and be right rather than assuming that it's always the time to buy when the bears are roaring, and of course if the TREND has changed, that changes everything. I suppose it will all remain perception vs. reality but the perma bulls better hope earnings and revenues don't betray them, after all, they seem so sure as well, and they are making predictions much further out and based on much less concrete evidence (apart from company mgmt, analyst calls, prevailing conditions) than the bears.