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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeff_boyd___ who wrote (15510)	10/22/2000 9:14:30 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Jeff: Re: " but no one is arguing that it won't ramp up Mhz quite well" Scumbria and I believe that the double pumped stages (now possibly nine up from two before out of 28) will limit its ultimate speed. It will not scale as well as the more balanced Athlon or even PPro, P2, or P3. It may not even get to 2GHz without a shrink to 0.13u. Tbird is rumored to 1.8GHz on 0.18u, and Mustang will be faster on the same process possibly to 2GHz on 0.18u. Since the Hammer family is expected to be even faster on the same process (and much smaller than P4 except for possibly the dual core Sledgehammer) than Mustang, Clawhammer may actually run at a faster clock than P4 on the same process size probably 0.13u copper (Sledgehammer may be 3x faster overall than P4). Thus both Scumbria and I are arguing that there is a good possibility that P4 may not ramp as fast or as well as Athlon or even Coppermine. The problem with thinking 12 months out is that many things change. For AMD, a whole family is in between now and late 2001 and the second family (Hammer (Sledge, Claw, and mobile (maybe Ball-peen, Air, Impact or Jack?))) is exceedingly hard to calculate its performance to any reasonable degree except that it will be higher than the "Horse" family (Mustang, Palomino, Morgan) and we do not yet know how much improved it will be over Tbird and Duron. In late October of 1999, many of those thought that it would take until Q4 of 2001 to get to 1GHz about 8 months or 3 times longer than it really took. So I would take a grain (actually a lot more) of salt for those who think AMD will have big troubles by then (Intel has a problem shooting at moving targets lately (they aim too low (I guess their gun is getting too heavy))). Pete