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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LemonHead who wrote (13312)	10/23/2000 9:21:40 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 18929

Hi Keith, I find the written analysis in VL to be the least valuable except for news items. Opinion is just that - opinion, and we all have one of those! It's the numbers that I watch. As far as AIM goes, their timeliness ratings are only a curiosity, not a predictor of successful AIMing. I sometimes use what I call the "Value Line Triple Crown" if I'm bottom fishing. I attempt to find stocks that are on three of their screens in the index section: High Growth Stocks High 3-5 Year Appreciation Potential Untimely Stocks (ranked 5, lowest) It doesn't happen very often that a stock will appear on all three screens in the same week, but when they do, it usually means that some traumatic event has happened which has knocked the stock for a loop. If it also appears on the Worst Performing Stocks - latest 13 weeks list, then it almost assured that it really got wallopted! It doesn't mean that it's a great buy, but that it might be one to explore very carefully. The easy way to screen is to look for the Timeliness 5 rated stocks on the High Growth list. It also lists the BETA which is handy. Years ago I started a pretend portfolio I called "the million dollar portfolio." It contained 20 stocks and was picked from VL's "High Growth Stocks" list. Each was given an initial $50,000 as a starting point and I used the IW value as of their start. I picked the high point of the previous year's price cycle to handicap it as much as possible. I still keep the MDP up to date and many stocks have done quite well after a slow start. Hard to recover from that first high water mark I used. Those original 20 were picked with just two criteria - High BETA and being on the High Growth Stocks list. Pretty simple. If one got bought out, I just replaced it with another off the list. If anyone's interested, I could write a quickie report on it and list the results. Best regards, Tom

To: LemonHead who wrote (13312)	10/24/2000 3:58:30 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18929

Hi Keith, Further to my "Triple Crown Award" from Value Line........ During the week of Oct. 13th, Value Line shows BMC Software (BMCS) as a Triple Crown Winner! As I've stated, being a winner here doesn't guaranty it's a good investment, just that it should be studied. During that week BMCS showed up on the Highest Growth Stocks (PP 39) Untimely Stocks (PP 38) and Stocks With High 3-5 Year Appreciation Potential (PP32) For the Growth stock list, BMCS shows a 10 year past growth rate of 35% per year with an estimated growth rate for the next three to five years of 20%. It's Untimely Stocks rating of 5 puts it in Value Line's category of stocks ranked lowest for relative price performance in the next 12 months. Finally with the V/L High Appreciation Potential, it ranks BMCS at $17 with a potential 3-5 years out of 400% gain! Here's what the two year chart looks like: siliconinvestor.com Not the prettiest picture I've ever seen. However, if one is shopping in the basement for bargains, one can't always expect the prettiest merchandise!!! Now, please don't take this analysis as a recommendation to buy this company's stock. It's not!! However, it does present itself as an interesting possibility for further study. It happens to be the ONLY triple crown stock for that week. There were two other near misses with two of the three crowns - Century Tel (CTL) and Computer Associates (CA). Both of those are on the High Growth list and also ranked 5 (lowest) for timeliness. Best regards, Tom