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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeff_boyd___ who wrote (15582)	10/23/2000 1:48:51 PM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

<< I know its next to impossible to predict what will happen six months from now, but it sure seems like AMD is being very quiet in terms of addressing how they will react to PIV once it gets beyond RDRAM problems. >> This would be a greater concern to me if we were trading at a multiple of 30-40, but the hammer series should be able to scale with the p4, also you're assuming that the p4 is going to beat out mustang, which isn't a given in my mind. It's hard to go out and compare processors that aren't available, if the latest news from JC proves out (that the spec scores showing a p4 at 1.4ghz 8% faster then a p3 1ghz in specfp2000 were legit and won't change for production version) then the p4 is a performance dog, and mustang will likely be a stronger perform at time of release.

To: jeff_boyd___ who wrote (15582)	10/23/2000 1:56:38 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Jeff, <Kind of an open ended question, but what are some of the things that would cause you to sell your AMD position?> I was actually planning on selling in Q3 but given the drop it didn't make any sense. I will reconsider in Q1 based on the execution on the laptop platform. AMD needs to put out an attractive laptop platform before Intel's 0.13 kicks in Q2. <The SSB report Albert was kind enough to post indicated two good reasons in my mind. Flash prices at the high end appear to be weakening ....> This does not bother me yet. The spot prices are still several times the contract prices. And, Intel pushing out Colorado fab is a good sign. I doubt if there is going to be serious weakness in flash most of next year. Some price drops are likely but a glut, especially for AMD flash, is unlikely. <...and 15 - 20 million PIV's in 2001 (granted mostly in back end of year).> That sounds like a pretty conservative number to me. It is probably going to come above that range. <I know its next to impossible to predict what will happen six months from now, but it sure seems like AMD is being very quiet in terms of addressing how they will react to PIV once it gets beyond RDRAM problems.> Mustang, as far as I can tell, seems to be an extremely competitive core. The major issue for AMD is enabling the proper platforms in time. AMD can do well if it does not bungle laptop segment. Server would be a nice icing on the cake but given how much it has slipped is probably not going to be a meaningful contributor to revenues in 2001. As far AMD executes decently on the laptop side, I see little that can push AMD away from mid-range through the end of 2001. And, there is heck of a lot of money to be made at the mid-range. Chuck

To: jeff_boyd___ who wrote (15582)	10/23/2000 2:15:35 PM
From: rsi_boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kind of an open ended question, but what are some of the things that would cause you to sell your AMD position? I'm ready to sell once AMD reaches a valuation in the PE range of 20-25 (assuming consistent 10% sequential revenue growth). At this point, depending when it occurs, AMD might still have a lot of upside left but would no longer be so shockingly undervalued. Even then I might keep half my shares selling the rest to take a profit and look for other opportunities. t.