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Technology Stocks : AWARE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobo who wrote (1276)	10/24/2000 9:38:21 AM
From: StockDon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2404

GSPN has $75mm in rev during cal Q2, 75% of which was ADSL. At $30 ASP, that is 1.9mm chipsets. I'm afraid it's not quite that simple to figure out. On the Q2 conference call Globespan talked about how the prices of the chips they sell varies widely (in excess of $60), depending on what components are shipped with that chipset. Your talking like an analyst who is trying to figure out the market. If Globespan was shipping as many chips as you say, then why don't they give an estimate as to the number of chips they have shipped or will ship this year. ADI has told us that they expect to ship 7M chips in FY 2000, and I think that will prove to be very conservative.

To: Bobo who wrote (1276)	10/24/2000 1:55:54 PM
From: Scrapps	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2404

Yes Bobo is an Analyst no doubt. He said: "Now that Aware mgt has finally admitted that ADI is its primary royalty generator They "admitted" this forever. What are you talking about? I cannot remember AWRE has disclosing that ADI generated the vast majority of royalty revenue prior to this cc." Yet he posted this over one year ago: Message 11406619 Bobo proves he is full of beans...here is an audio of his posting. mattsmusicpage.com

To: Bobo who wrote (1276)	10/24/2000 2:14:47 PM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 2404

Gotta be careful on ADI's numbers as a proxy for AWRE's royalty. I'm not talking about ADI's revenue line, I'm talking about ADI's forecast for DSL chip sales. They've upped it each quarter, and it seems pretty safe to assume that this forecast from ADI a good proxy for future AWRE royalty revenue. On the previous conference call AWRE said their own forecasts were based on ADI doing what they said they would do. The extrapolation of contract revenue into meaningful royalty revenue is a dangerous game IMO. Agreed. There is no guarantee a contract engagement will produce a chipset that grabs any market share. But you said that AWRE/ADI are in denial about their competition. They have said the only meaningful competition is from ALA, my source at TXN confirms that ADI and ALA are the only real players, with TXN trying to get in the mix but at the moment lagging. What are AWRE/ADI in denial about? For analog modems, the only real players were MOT and USRX (right, Scrapps!!?). For DSL modems, there is unlikely to be more than 2-4 MAJOR players, and ADI is certainly one of them, and most likely #1. What's to deny?? Elroy