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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (15759)	10/24/2000 3:05:40 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin, With NSM warning, I don't see anyway that AMD doesn't continue to drain to lower levels. Fundamentals don't matter with the semi's anymore. chic

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (15759)	10/24/2000 3:16:04 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin, >In Q1, AMD will have dual 1.5 Ghz Mustang servers. I suspect that these servers will match the performace of 4-way Intel Xeon servers. This level of performance will not be ignorable and is currently AMD's biggest opportunity. But DP Fosters will be available about the same time, at 2 GHz, or so the predictors are saying. Also, the big 4 OEMs have the servers they'll go into in development now. Tony

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (15759)	10/24/2000 3:19:30 PM
From: david_langston	Respond to of 275872

Pravin I was getting a little worried about how AMD would fill their new flash fabs, but the strategic alliances with TI and LSI have removed this fear. The sales increments in the long-term contracts undoubtedly fill much of this extra capacity or else FASL wouldn't be so aggressive in expanding capacity. They have unprecedented flash sales visibility for the next several years. Dave

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (15759)	10/25/2000 10:15:40 AM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

<< In Q1, AMD will have dual 1.5 Ghz Mustang servers. I suspect that these servers will match the performace of 4-way Intel Xeon servers. This level of performance will not be ignorable and is currently AMD's biggest opportunity >> Mustang isn't likely to even appear until Q1, which will probably end up being late Q1 with no real production until Q2. (at least if we follow their track record with thunderbird, duron, and dresden) and 760MP isn't supposed to come out until Q2 per the CC, so I don't see where your 1.5 ghz mustangs are going to come from. << So, how will AMD be able to compete with a 3 Ghz P4 in, say, Q4 of 2001? My guess is that AMD will have a 0.13u (possibly SOI) 2+ Ghz Clawhammer in production by that time, and that it will perform favorable againts the speedy P4. >> I'll be surprised to see any hammer parts out there in 01, and we'd better get a heck of a lot more then 2ghz out of the .13 processor or I think we're in real trouble. I also still disagree with the assumption that the public as a whole will go for a slower mhz chip that performs better. I could see it selling into the corporate market where buyers are more informed, but AMD has no footing there, and there's really no indication that they're getting one.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (15759)	10/25/2000 12:52:08 PM
From: porn_start878	Respond to of 275872

Pravin I suspect that P4 in 0.18u will scale to around 2.2 to 2.4 Ghz. But, power and heat will be major issues. Combined with die size issues, P4 does not become viable until 0.13u -- or 2H, 2001. So, how will AMD be able to compete with a 3 Ghz P4 in, say, Q4 of 2001? My guess is that AMD will have a 0.13u (possibly SOI) 2+ Ghz Clawhammer in production by that time, and that it will perform favorable againts the speedy P4. Clawhammer die size will be much smaller than P4 and AMD will continue to be able to offer a price/performance advantage. Then we get Sledge with its dual core design and LDT that will provide 2, 4, 8, 16+ way high performance 64-bit servers. I think you overestimate P4 clockspeed potencial substancially. .18 P4 will HARDLY get to 2GHz (1.13 PIII volume and special edition like) this .18 piece will get way too hot north of 1.8GHz. Then, for the move to .13, 3GHz is a total dremy assumption. Double pumped ALU + 2 clock L1 are already near the border of 1/2billion of a second. k6 on .18 can't even reach 650 MHz because it was alredy pushed so hard to get to 550Mhz, that the margin available was already spended. P4 won't ramp that well. Max