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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (41477)	10/25/2000 6:29:25 PM
From: Eski	Respond to of 77400

Well T2 I have gain alot more respect for you then Wrong Way Ed.

To: t2 who wrote (41477)	10/25/2000 7:20:26 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

T2, I just wonder if we are entering a period where just meeting expectations will be good enough. As the last high flying sector got whacked I think that is exactly it. But, some expectations will not be met. The whole outlook going forward will need to be revisited. The optical sector will not be a 5 trillion dollar market by 2005. I think we will see a slow down as teleco's, dot.com, and old economy stocks spend at a slower growth rate on tech. ventures. I think margins will come down in all these sectors as competition increases. MOT with 6% margins doesn't look good for wireless. Internet wireless seems to be a flop. With rising oil prices and general inflation I think broadband will not take off as planned. The fact is stocks like csco have been priced beyond perfection and are doomed to fall as they fail to meet expectations in the coming year. Semi's have started to crack and now the optical sector is getting whacked. Biotech will be crushed in the coming years. But, I think the big sector to get smashed will be the financials with their massive holdings of corporate bonds. I heard AMZN's bonds are now trading with a 60% yield. There are no big winners in the bond market to make up for the losers. There will be less ipo's and placements to reap profits from. The financial sector will be whacked. Thanks a lot for the congrats. It's nice to know that some people realize that I have made pretty solid calls all year. While the bulls lower their bullish targets I will remain with my original call on the Nasdaq. 2500 is a given and if things continue to erode in the teleco sector, dot.bomb and financials I think 1500 by next summer will be seen. Again, I wish we could rally. I wish the party could go on. It's much easier to make money when stocks are going up. No down tick rule to get in my way. When stocks start to fall it's to late to get in short. Shorting is a much trickery game. Good luck, Bambs P.S. do you think CSCO's revenue will come in light this quarter or will they have to lower guidance for the next? If yes, what do you think csco could gap down to? Is a 20-25% gap down out of the question?

To: t2 who wrote (41477)	10/25/2000 10:54:53 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

t2, I still believe that until they shoot the last two guys standing (EMC and SUNW), the tech bear market won't come to an end. I was lucky to get out of JDSU for a trading position yesterday at about 103. Fiber optics are a pure momentum play. When there is a little piece of negative news, issues will get killed in this market. The bad thing is that JDSU still looks very expensive by traditional valuation. When you want to turn a momo play into a value play, you are in big trouble. JDSU will probably come in with 16-17 cents, and the best hope for revenue is in the high end. That will propell a little relief rally but will definitely be short lived. Fiber optics 2001 will be telecom 2000, underperforming the market. I have total respect for CSCO. However, I am getting very uncomfortable with the technicals of this issue. A retreat to low 40s within the next 6 months is basically inevitable. We are in a true bear market. We entered the second phase when they shot the nut sector. I don't give a damn about the overvalued nut sector. However, the concept of rich valuation we are giving to the premium companies come from the ridiculous high valuation models of nut issues. When nuts crashed, investors sentiment got a huge blow and probably their confidence was also shattered. One by one we see the rest of the high tech sector got shot for no other reason but a retreat to historical valuation, and we still have a long way to go. Nastaq 2800, and even 2500 is likely in the spring of 2001. I think that biotech will probably be the next bubble play in 2001. No doubt 95% of those issues will see their market cap dropping 80+% from current level in 3-5 years. However, they can get much bigger before they lose steam. good luck, larry!