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To: milo_morai who wrote (15984)	10/25/2000 7:24:57 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

SSB's JJ:forecast only 15-20M P4s shipped next year, about 10% of Intel's total, most of that 2H loaded SLIGHTLY BETTER SIGNS IN PROCESSOR MARKET 10/23 As mentioned, last week's Intel price cuts on sub-677MHz PIIIs helped reduce the huge gap between Intel's list price and "open market" prices. Overall Intel processor gray market prices up-ticked from a 17% to a15% discount to list, while PIIIs moved from 16% to 12%, still among the widest gaps in memory. In addition, "sweet spot" processors, in the 733-800MHz range, actually picked up a few percentage points in the gray market last week, the first time prices have firmed, even a little bit, in some months. We continue to expect Intel high-end price cuts on October 29. Chipsets have been in the news a lot lately. Chipsets were a big contributor to Intel's Q3 revenue increase, given that microprocessor revenues were flat. Partly because Intel has been aggressive in taking back market share, several leading Taiwanese suppliers have been suffering, including Acer Labs and SiS, according to our analyst in Taiwan, Andrew Lu. Last week Alex Chen, an officer of Via Technologies, made some interesting points to the Japanese press: 1) The company is moving forward with its KX266, a DDR SDRAM- compatible chipset for the Pentium, 2) It is developing a chipset for the P4, which we assume will have an SDRAM and/or DDR interface, 3) It is moving forward with plans to ship in volume in Q2 its next-generation processor, Matthew, a Timna (just cancelled by Intel) look-alike with processor and graphics for notebook computers. Via plans to ship all of its processors into the Asian Pacific markets, probably in the hopes of avoiding intellectual property disputes with Intel. When asked if Intel would license the P4 bus interface to Via, as Intel suggested it might do at the Developer Forum two months ago, Chen replied he expected so and that "Chipsets to be made by third parties will play a significant role in the penetration of Pentium 4". Given that Intel is de-emphasizing Rambus, it may become increasingly dependent on Taiwanese chipset suppliers to ramp PC-133 chipsets for the P4 next year. Even so, we are forecasting only 15-20 million P4s will be shipped next year, about 10% of Intel's total unit production, and most of that 2H loaded.