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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: couldawoulda who wrote (13530)	10/26/2000 7:26:30 PM
From: viplav kumar	Respond to of 24042

It's funny that briefing.com resorts to fundamental analysis when things look bearish; while at the top of the bubble (e.g. last year dot-com bubble) they use techincal analysis to say how high a stupid dot-com would go according to the chart. Anyway, many times they are a contrarian indicator as pointed out by lot of SIers.(But it is a good site for quick updates on the market). Did anybody notice Investors Business Daily talked about "high PE"s of networkers in todays paper while most of the time they brag about the charts without worrying about the fundamentals ? Yet another bearish spin on JDSU's earnings: thestreet.com I am sure the same analyst would have upgraded the stock when it was at 150. - Viplav

To: couldawoulda who wrote (13530)	10/26/2000 9:06:20 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Hi couldawoulda, Where do these people come from? I've had a bit of a private correspodence with Greg and prior to his involvement with Briefing.com, he came from the sell side analyst community in NYC. If you had been following his work for while as I have, you would find that his views are well-reasoned, cogent and thoughtful. He's not out to bash JDSU, not by a long shot. He has no axe to grind here. I find that his commentary is really more of an echo of what I've been reading from several sources over the past few months. Make no mistake about it, CapeX spending in telecom is going down. Not negative growth. I mean in 2001, there will be less spending for plant by all established telcos than there will be in 2000. All you have to do is to take a look at the parlous condition of the bond market. FT, BT, DT, all recently downgraded, T coming apart at the seams. It doesn't take too much imagination to realize that all the spending by the CLECs, DLECs and BLECs combined can't possibly make a difference. They simply don't have the mass to matter. There are a couple of things I'd advise that you take a look at. The first is an article by Jim Cramer of theStreet.com comparing JDSU to Komag. thestreet.com While I don't really care for Cramer's take no prisoners approach to trading, I must admit that from time to time he had valuable insights. The point he was trying to make, and successfully with me as an AMCC long, is that the component guys are always the last to know that the jig is up. The next article you should attend to is in The Economist, 10-14-00, titled "Is the End In Sight" pp87-8. economist.com The editors do an excellent job of laying out the tenuous state of the bond markets. Remember, we haven't had spreads between "junk" and Treasuries this wide since the panicked days of mid-1998. Some one is nervous, and so their charging for their fear of the private sector. Seen any bonds floated for telecom infrastructure in the last few weeks? I haven't. Here's a paragraph from the article that is worth paying attention to: If the game is up in the junk market, there will be severe consequences for the equity market, especially those shares that have not already been mauled. No firm would find it easy to raise new finance, however good its prospects. Indeed, today’s loans to telecoms firms may turn out to be much like property lending a decade ago, a fad that caused economic downturn and, for a while, stopped the bull market in its tracks. I was in the constuction business in the Bay Area 10 years ago. I know of the destruction of value first hand. It was amazing to see buildings that cost $100MM to build in 1984 going on the auction block for $20MM. But it happened. One report? I count five now that have been very bullish. GLW, SDLI, JDSU, NUFO & even NT's can be construed as a bullish report. If you take but a moment to reflect, you'll realize that these are all component and system vendors. These are not the people who are directly impacted by the big chill in the bond markets. It is the service providers, like WCOM that you need to be paying attention to in order to judge the future prospects of the fine companies that you mentioned. Remember, the health of the component sector is a lagging indicator. Finally, this is not conspiracy theory stuff, Mr. Jones is not someone to engage in any of the sort of nefarious plots you might imagine. He's a straight shooter. OTOH, Cramer, oi vey! What a piece of work that one is. <vbg> Best, Ray