Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (850)	10/28/2000 11:52:32 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 1805

AMCC short interest went up 69% in early October from September!! Information just out this weekend. Looks like great bullish indicator to me. I bet it even went higher after the date of this calculation. nasdaqtrader.com

To: Trader Dave who wrote (850)	10/28/2000 3:18:27 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

I don't get the feeling that it's only NT that is putting pressure on AMCC. First we heard pc sales and semis were slowing (but IC chips were ok). Downgrades hit but some analysts disagreed. Intel missed, Mu beat but DRAM prices are going to hurt going forward. Apple misses. Analysts think it's just an Apple issue, Dell says his company is fine (although he said days of HYPERgrowth were over on a previous cc). A week and a half later Dell figures out that wasn't quite right. Another stock killed. IBM joins in. Analysts say it's an IBM problem (again). Analysts worry about cell phone and wireless slowdown... sure enough that happened and those got whacked. Internet advertising worries abound. Yahoo says they'll make their numbers. Tim Koogle looks confident as he says there is no problem on cnbc. They do make the numbers but gone is the confidence on future of advertising. Double click, Real networks, etc... Whack those too. What happened to Mary Meeker? Uh oh... says to buy pmcs! Please, Mary... don't say anything more about my companies. Sagawa comes out and downgrades NT, sites slowing Capex. Analysts defend NT and NT itself comes out with great PR but later misses topline growth. Roth says it's a one quarter deal and say they'll sell $10 billion in FO and are "nearly" sold out for the year. (what happened? Wasn't it $12 billion and "we're sold out for the year" sited by Roth earlier???) Veco misses. Instrument testing falls in sympathy. Newp comes out with great earnings soothing the sector. But gets a downgrade on NT news anyway. LU has just been one screw up after another. Mc Ginn is finally ousted, but not before the stock loses 75% of it's value. Lu started out saying it's just a one quarter thing. Sagawa said to buy LU all the way down. But he downgraded NT. Could NT mess up again as Lu did? McGinn kept saying he would get things in order and then had to keep warning. Couldn't NT's Roth just be like LU's Mc Ginn? Then how can we believe that it's only one quarter? What happened to the previous guidance of another $2 billion in FO sales? (I do think the credibility of Roth due to Mc Ginn, right or wrong, is one of our biggest psychological overhangs on amcc/jdsu). LU and NT make up a significant portion of FO/chip biz for jdsu/amcc/pmcs. Downgrades of amcc, pmcs and jdsu come out even before jdsu earnings due to NT (despite sdli handily blowing away estimates and giving wonderful guidance). European banks are looking into tightening up lending for telcos. Rumors of MSDW having some problems with telco bonds. Capital and equity markets are making it difficult to get funding for startups, secondaries and convertible debt. Some clecs miss and warn of capex spending cutbacks or slow payers. Cien and NT have some bankrupt companies they have to write off. NT announces a big billion dollar deal but half is financed. World economies are slowing down, likely haven't finished slowing as interest rates take a while to work their way through the economy. Gdp drops more than expected. Some talk of a possible hard landing (uh, recession) is making it's rounds. Cramer moves in with his rag putting more doubt into trader's heads. Briefing.com joins in. Jdsu, Amcc and Pmcs guidance is good. Jdsu and Amcc ceo's come out swinging. Valuations aren't cheap, but growth is high. Business is great! Traders are running for the doors anyway. Margin probably forced some to liquidate. Whatcha gonna believe? After every sector has gotten whacked when analysts defended them and the companies ended up missing or guiding down later are traders going to wait around and see if amcc/jdsu and pmcs are doing ok? Doesn't look like it. Too many people (and funds) on margin, chasing the same stocks all at the same time pushed stocks up. Same people are all reading the same stories, not knowing what they really own (the segments they sell to), unable to figure out that capex is more than "capex" ("oh my! capex is bad, bad, bad! What is capex? I dunno but it's bad!" Hellooooo! It's like saying growth rate of meat consumption is slowing. Does that mean ALL meat? Can't some types be going up while others are going down?), not giving the ceos the chance to prove they are right (well... so many others said they were, how can these few be right?), tripping over each other at the door. If funds thought that jdsu and sdli were such great opportunities this low, they would have gone up more after the jdsu report. Well... I'm not sure if I should be thankful that there were enough buyers to prevent it from collapsing after earnings or pray we tank so I can buy more. Then we get this "well, this chart looks like that chart did in January, so this stock is going down". I don't know. But when you put all that "thinking" and worrying together, I'm not surprised people are running. Eventually it leads to a stampede or maybe lemmings falling off a cliff. Even a couple investors on this board that I thought were long term holders are now giving me the feeling that they want out. Personally, I think that most of those "worries" are overblown and that what we're seeing is small clecs having problems, some bigger legacy voice companies struggling (so maybe there is fear that the little dot.bombs had trouble before yahoo dropped and therefore quality FO and IC chips are gonna die?), banks "looking more closely at financing but not denying it", bad debt as a small percentage of financing (although it's possible it could get worse) at NT. Some bad debt is just a fact of life for most businesses, unfortunately. I don't know if we've seen the bottom. I don't think we've seen the top looking out a year or so (LOL! I haven't found one single chart that compares to amcc, it's such a volatile stock!), but don't anticipate we will be back to the old highs any time soon. I do think you're right about the volatility continuing. Gosh, it makes ME want to buy dips and sell rallies with extra cash and I absolutely hate that feeling. All I know is that last year an analyst said to avoid buying pmcs on weakness. The stock couldn't get up and I was pretty upset since all the other chips were fine, but I held on and bought more even though the chart looked pretty suspicious. This year we have more analysts doubting the fundamentals will remain with FO and IC chips and valuations are certainly higher. I am wondering if we're even going to be able to wake the bull for a while, but no one will get my amcc shares from me. Time is on my side, and I'm going to come out with a winner. TA