To: John Carragher who wrote (13667 ) 10/28/2000 12:08:38 PM From: pat mudge Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 24042 The Nortel announcement, combined with earnings disappointments from Lucent Technologies and other onetime industry stalwarts, have investors worried that overall spending for communications equipment will slow in 2001. Bruce Bartlett, whose $3.8 billion Oppenheimer Growth Fund counts SDL as its No. 5 holding, said he expected a slowdown in the optics space next year, but that the Nortel announcement has forced the issue. "It came sooner and with more force and velocity than we would have anticipated," he concedes. The structure of the optical-component supply market, which JDS Uniphase dominates, will change dramatically in the year ahead, with as many as five companies entering the fray. With a multitude of new companies hoping to come public, earnings disappointments are likely to rise, Bartlett said. If Mr. Franecki had chosen to quote John Roth, Josef Strauss, or Don Scifres, he would have presented a picture 180 degrees from the above. Nortel's exact expectations as recorded in yesterday's SEC filing:The Registrant also stated that it expects that its percentage growth in earnings per share from operations in 2000 compared with 1999 will also be in the low 40's, up from its previously stated expectation which was in the high 30's. Looking forward to 2001, the Registrant stated its expectation that the overall market will grow in excess of 20 percent. Compared to 2000, the Registrant continues to expect to grow significantly faster than the market in 2001, with anticipated growth in revenues and earnings per share from operations in the 30 to 35 percent range. SDLI's exact expectations as recorded in their latest SEC filing:freeedgar.com Forecasting into 2001, we estimate that we will generate year-over-year revenue growth in the range of 100%. Our long-term model for operating margin remains low to mid 30s, and our guidance is that operating margins will trend toward that range over time as we grow our R&D back towards our target of 9% of revenue. After summarizing the company's expectations for growth in every product line, Don Scifres says:So there you have it. Our leading edge products are again opening up new opportunities for growth, and our acquisitions are fulfilling our strategy to rapidly expand into new emerging markets. As Mike indicated, we expect to be over a one billion dollar company in 2001. We may be able to do significantly better than that. Of course, since we expect to be part of JDS Uniphase by that time, I don't expect to be reporting separately on that to you. Subsequent to earnings, every analyst who follows SDLI has upgraded its expectations for 2001. JDSU's expectations as recorded in Thursday's conference call:Message 14670803 Those following our company know that our guidance for the first quarter was for sequential sales growth in the high teens. We feel that the same guidance is appropriate for the second quarter based on the strength we see in our markets, our significantly higher backlog, and our capacity expansion plans. However, we must increase our guidance for sales growth for the fiscal year ending June 30th. The following numbers are based on growth from a base including ETEK sales for last year. In April, this guidance was 75%, subsequently increased to 80% and 90% in May and July respectively. Now, we believe fiscal 2001 sales will be at least 115-120% above pro forma combined sales of $1.77 billion from fiscal 2000. The Barron's article quotes Mr. Bartlett again:Bruce Bartlett. . . said he expected a slowdown in the optics space next year, but that the Nortel announcement has forced the issue. "It came sooner and with more force and velocity than we would have anticipated," he concedes. Compare this to what John Roth said of the industry in their recent conference call:Looking ahead: market continues to strengthen. Last year we would have seen 15% growth in expenditures from customers. We saw it move up this year. 21% forecast at 1Q. Looking now into next year we see capX increase in area of 20 to 25%. We should be able to grow in 30 to 35% region. Who are you going to believe --- a fund manager who's been hurt by the dropping share price or the CEO of the largest player in the over-all fiber optics space in the industry? Let me give you an example of what's happening behind the scenes in the industry. I'm funding a seed-stage start-up in the high-end laser diode packaging space. The founders have patent-pending processes but are only at the Cisco-in-a-garage stage, and yet the first round of financing is already over-subscribed and indications are we could sell out a second round today if we wanted. This includes money from some of Silicon Valley's most respected funds as well as from the venture arm of one of the fiber optics "big three." Everyone wanting to invest knows this is not an IPO-breeder, not a pump-and-dump, take-your-money-and-run opportunity. This is a company being created to fill a need in the industry going forward. So tell me, would Mr. Bartlett complain of a slowing market were our CEO to phone and offer him a piece of the action? Would you? Your answer is the best indicator of what you really think of the industry's future. Pat