Eric,
but as for why I'm skeptical about the abilities of the Chinese, I'm going on history. The Koreans, Taiwan, and all the other Asian tigers have had plenty of success in creating major electronics giants; but have the Chinese? Sure, there's plenty of foreign companies with major operations in China, and many of them are doing well, but how many major Chinese industrial giants do you see out there today? The fact is that they've never been very successful at building out industry internally. It's just something about a socialistic/communistic/whatever-you-want-to-call-it system that doesn't make it a very favorable environment for home-grown business. Also, do you have any examples regarding how the GSM camp's made it difficult for Chinese wireless concerns?
You are so far off base that I can only suggest you go to China and see for yourself before jumping to conclusions which you would one day regret ever putting down in words.
but as for why I'm skeptical about the abilities of the Chinese, I'm going on history
Your statement clearly revealed that you have no understanding of history. Here is a little help. Try not to take a snap shot and pass judgement. Use a streaming video and you will have a much better picture of where China has been and where China may be heading.
The modern China began in Sept of 1976, when Mao Tse-tung died. You might have heard of the cultural revolution which threw the already devastated China into further turmoil for a decade. Just imagine any society suspending education while killing killing off the educated for ten years and see what you end up with.
That was only 24 years ago. Start your video here and picture the condition of the chaotic country at that time. As a comparison, just use any part of the world that you may be familiar with and start a video there also.
Now fast forward to the year 2000 and take a look at the changes. Just the visual changes are remarkable. It is probably unreasonable to expect a novice to understand the more complicated underlying social, political and economical changes that are not as obvious to the naked eye. Compare the accomplishments during these 24 years that to the region you had selected earlier. I know of no other economy in the world that had progressed further.
The question we have today is where is China heading and at what pace? Are they catching up to the western world or at they lagging further behind? Judging from what a few renegade Chinese did in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, I suspect that the dragon may be awakening soon. Herein lies the fear and conflict of the western powers who want a piece of China while worrying about the imbalances that a powerful China may bring.
Needless to say, I cannot be responsible for an off topic posts on this moderated thread so here comes the QC part.
In the beginning, there was MOT. MOT was so dominating that pagers in China were commonly known as Motorolas, a market that MOT soon lost.
When wireless came on the scene, GSM and more specifically, the big 3 (MOT, NOKIA and ERICY) gained a foothold in China's wireless world long before China developed any domestic capabilities. That has since changed. During 1999, China's domestic companies managed to capture a measly 2.5% of the market. The last report I read, albeit unofficial, is up to 10%. Aside from the technological advantages, CDMA is seen as an avenue to accelerate market share by domestic manufacturers. Whether that would be true remains to be seen. Regardless, China is unlikely to allow history to repeat itself.
Do not be confused with meaningless words such as "fair" and "free" when it comes to trading. Trade is trade. The object of the game is to do whatever that is most advantageous to you. China is no exception.
Also, do you have any examples regarding how the GSM camp's made it difficult for Chinese wireless concerns?
As a matter of fact, I do. When China finally managed to market GSM handsets, they were counting on cost advantage as the main salient point. The big 3 immediately started a price war and neutralized that advantage.
In hind sight, why would China launch CDMA before domestic vendors are ready to capture a reasonable chunk of the most sort after market in the world?
China's motivation is crystal clear. China is going to do what is best for China. What is best for China?
1) provide telecomm infrastructure
2) provide boost to economy with jobs, multiplier effect etc etc.
3) provide export opportunities in the future.
If we filter out all the noise by Reuters, Bloomberg and news agencies that I have never heard of, there is nothing that China had done which would be considered inconsistent with the above.
Now if we assume that there will be no earth shattering definitive announcements from China, what are the signals we should look for?
In no particular order:
Though from no official source that I know of, Great Wall/China Unicom CDMA subscribers has grown from 100,000 to 200,000. We know there are 4 cities, pop over 30 million, with CDMA infra in place. Unicom can use these cities to quietly expand and try out all the Chinese vendors, handsets, servicing etc etc without much effort and until current capacity is exhaused.
XING supposedly is retooling and ramping up for volume production.
We all know ZTE has claimed repeatedly and now have MII certification for numerousl CDMA products.
We know that numerous JVs with Korea are in place. Why Korea? You don't suppose China wants to tap Korea for their GSM knowledge, do you? <gggg>
While we know there are around 60-70 million wireless subs in China, I am not sure what percentage of the vast country is covered. As China Unicom expands into new cities, the SIM card idea is uniquely suitable for this version of CDMA/GSM overlay.
This month, SAWTEK's PR on a large order confirmed that something is cooking behind the scene.
November 2 would be the most revealing. If China is to proceed with CDMA, they need chipsets. Having a choice of QC, QC, QC or QC, the year end report is bound to answer some of these questions.
Unfortunately, I will be on vacation then and some of you may remember what happens to QC when I leave on vacation.
Ramsey |
