Now fast forward to the year 2000 and take a look at the changes. Just the visual changes are remarkable. It is probably unreasonable to expect a novice to understand the more complicated underlying social, political and economical changes that are not as obvious to the naked eye. Compare the accomplishments during these 24 years that to the region you had selected earlier. I know of no other economy in the world that had progressed further.
I guess I didn't express my opinions as clearly as I should've. I know that China's undergone significant changes since Mao's death, and I know that in many ways, they're now communist in name only. However, my point was that so far, the Chinese, unlike all of their neighbors save for North Korea, have had little or no success exporting anything electronics-related, and that they've had plenty of time to develop wireless-related skills with GSM, yet have had only marginal success. When you talk about the CDMA-related success of Asian companies like Samsung and LG, you should keep in mind that these companies have also been very successful in other technology-related fields. For example, you may know that Samsung's the world's largest DRAM manufacturer, and one of the world's leading manufacturers of flash memory. Technology-related success is nothing new to them. Meanwhile, for the reasons you stated, perhaps the Chinese haven't had enough time to create the likes of a Sony or a Samsung, but they have had more than enough time to develop skills in wireless manufacturing.
So my point is that, considering what's happened in the near future with the Chinese and GSM, what makes you think that suddenly they'll become very good at CDMA, and will manufacture a large percentage of the handsets and networking equipment that go into their country, let alone other countries? I don't think anyone here's going to argue that Samsung, Motorola, Lucent, and the rest of the entrenched CDMA oligarchy don't constitute a formidable threat for any Chinese manufacturing concern looking to be successful in this field. You wrote about how the Big Three started a price war to limit any success the Chinese had with GSM. However, what's to stop the CDMA camp from doing the same? They obviously have the economies of scale to make such a move. Sure, the Chinese benefit from somewhat lower royalties, but I doubt that's enough.
Also, regarding the economic climate in China for business development, it's hard to argue that in many ways, although major improvements have been made, it's anywhere as favorable as, say, the climate in Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan. We've all come across our share of horror stories regarding what businesses have had to put up with when trying to operate in China. The government meddling, the high taxes, the bribes, the attempts to appropriate technology, the need for "connections". It's all well-documented. There's definitely a talented labor pool there, as proven by all the foreign technology companies that have successful Chinese operations. However, the relative lack of success of electronics/technology-related companies formed within China seems quite startling in comparision.
In the end, I'm not saying that the Chinese aren't going to be doing major CDMA rollouts starting next year. I think that the rollouts are for real this time, and that there's a good chance that in the future, China Unicom will use nothing but cdma2000 in new spectrum. All I'm saying is that, save for a few government-mandated contracts, I expect that most of the equipment and handsets used by Unicom and its subscribers will come from foreign companies. Maybe I'll be proven wrong about this. Time will tell.
And Ibexx, it's your ignorance and arrogance (perhaps inferiority complexes as well?) that truly amazes me. I've got nothing against the Chinese as a people, nor did I say that their society isn't an industrialized one; and if you noticed, I mentioned that Taiwan has been successful with regards to being a powerhouse in the global electronics industry. But as I stated in this post...oh, why bother?
And by the way, I'm not even close to being Nordic (thanks for the laugh), and having 9% of my port in Qualcomm, no one would like to see the sun set on GSM more than I (yet another laugh...ever thought about being a stand-up comic?). A quick look through some of my older posts would more than validate my optimism on Qualcomm going forward; but since I don't possess the tunnel vision that you deem necessary for anyone to be bullish about this company's prospects going forward, I'm consider an enemy of "the cause." Well, that's fine with me. Who am I to question the opinions of a true believer?
Eric
PS - You know what's really funny about all of this? I'm the one predicting that W-CDMA handset/subscriber growth, which will convert millions of GSM/PDC subscribers currently not generating a cent for Qualcomm into indirect royalty payers and ASIC buyers, will exceed most expectations. I'm also the one predicting that the Chinese manufacturers, who are believed to be paying reduced royalty rates to Qualcomm, will have only limited success....and yet I'm the one who's deemed to be a critic of this company. Talk about irony. |
