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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (34308)	10/29/2000 12:18:37 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

>Due to the uncertainty in this market, I reduced my downside bias last week to 2:1 with 83% cash. From my large cash position its obvious that I aint sure of anything< That's not a bad thing this year. Cash has beat the market on a YTD basis. Especially dollars. On a less bearish note: I've read that the Dow, and perhaps the S&P have not gone below the Previous year's low since the secular bull market started in 1982. Last year's DJI low was just above 9000. I would expect to see major intervention if it tests that level. Also, the seasonal trend of the market between the 1st of November and end of March is bullish. You would have made money every year for at least the past 15 years buying at the start of Nov. and selling at the end of March. Even the bad years are positive over that period. chart.yahoo.com Data only goes back to 1984. I'd bet that the seasonal trend holds for even the majority of secular bear market years. I've seen this movie before. Stocks go down, Fed cuts rates and prints money, stocks go up. <g> A break of last yr's lows would change my thinking.

To: donald sew who wrote (34308)	10/29/2000 1:12:49 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

A little confused by your post. On the one hand your made a comparison with bear markets in the '30s and '70s (ignoring the '60s for the moment since I'm not sure which '60s bear you are referencing) and OTOH your comparison for an extended downtrend is with '95 and '87. For me the '30s and '70s were secular bears while '95 and '87 were bear corrections within a secular bull. These are very different types of bear markets. Seems sorta like using apples and oranges or maybe koalas and grizzlies.<gg> I would like to thank you for the many informative posts that I have enjoyed reading - last year on the old MDA and this year on Stock Attack. lurqer