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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: oaktownaj who wrote (39882)	10/30/2000 12:57:54 AM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Here's a relevant post from the txbanker club on Yahoo. This poster would disagree that dropping below 3000 would in any sense mark the end of the NASDAQ Bull Market, but rather simply a return to its shallower longer term upward trendline: Re: a fun parallel tonytechcomm (38/M/Cincinnati, OH) 10/30/00 12:13 am >>I am beginning to see my way past this fear - that our speculative bubble will really do us in. I think we'll put in a bottom by tech rotation, just as we did a top. We'll be fine, soon. (I think.)<< Mindless, and don't forget that the NAZDAQ (new economy?) is actually closer to it's traditional "safe zone" in terms of a 10+ year growth chart compared to the DOW which is still outside its traditional "safe zone" in terms of growth. In other words, the NAZ is very close to its long-term trend of producing roughly 20+% annual returns which is not outrageous when you look at the companies (and their growth rates) which dominate the index. The DOW is still outside its 20-year trendline average of about 13% annual returns. If you are a believe that those long-term return trends remain fair with regards to the relative fundamentals of the two indices, then the DOW actually has to fall a bit more to reach its long-term "safe" zone. BTW, I would argue these long-term trends are a perfect blend of FA confirming TA, and vice versa given that TA often provides an anticipated pivot point for resuming the trend. BTW, if you draw a trendline on a 10+ year NASDAQ chart that connects the Middle East crisis (Kuwait) / recession of 1990 with the Asian Contagion crisis of 1998, you notice that it is PERFECTLY parallel to the long-term lines I drew on the chart I posted awhile back. There are no fewer than 5 key parallel trendlines that measure the various zones on the NASDAQ (actually, many of these trendlines begin as far back as 1983). I call that bottom trendline the "Crisis" line because it is a good indicator of where to expect NASDAQ support in a major crisis (which we're not in). Where is the Crisis line now? I have it at almost 2008 and rising. Where will the NASDAQ Crisis trendline be in 10 years? It will be at 12192. Of course, Harry Dent thinks we may have some problems a couple of years before then. Finally, the zone where the NASDAQ has actually spent the vast majority of the past 10 year is currently between 2400 and 2670. The NASDAQ began trading more out of that zone in the middle of 1997. It then dropped through it, and below it in 1998, finally rising back above it shortly thereafter. Over the past 10 years, that has been the "safest" zone for the NASDAQ, short of any major crisis. In 10 years from now, that zone will be from 14,573 to 16,212. Again, it all starts with the belief that the NASDAQ ought to return 20% per year due to fundamentals ... that major crises have been discounted in the past by a set amount (of course, the next major crisis could always be "more major" than the 1990 recession or the Asian Contagion) ... and bubbles have proven to be overvalued by a similar relative amount over time, eventually snapping back to the long-term trend once it is proven that there is not a sustainable, economic growth basis for the bubble beyond the long-term economic/market trend. Best wishes! Tony

To: oaktownaj who wrote (39882)	10/30/2000 5:33:10 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 57584

My view for this week os more like a year ending view. Pessimism has been very high since the start of Sept, its now the end of October or is it ROCKTOBER? That is too many are getting rocked to death in the market. I actually have a good feeling that we may get a X-MAS RALLY from this point on. I have learned that this is one of those times when you place your bets on the table and try to walk away. I believe MM and Specialist will do their best to fake out many at this point, so I prefer to NOT LOOK! I have made some fairly large bets, mostly in the small cap market and inparticular the optic space. It will be very hard to hold but if you do come the end of the month I do believe we may be close to 4000. I based this on my research over this weekend, and taking everything into consideration, we should rally upto earnings warning season again. Then it could get bumpy. For the record I see a very very tough market come spring. From the looks of my model it may be wise to use this up coming bear market rally to pull 70-80% out prior to Feb. I believe 1900-2700 will be the range for the nasd from 3/01-8/01. NASD should form a nice bottom over the summer, and I see aslow but steady rise to 3500 by the end of 2001. But yes I am optomistic about this week and the next 5-7 weeks. It will be tough but we should go up, withliquidity being the driving force, and low expectations. Good luck all, I would just stay away from Bio-Tech, they are too toppy for me!