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To: rocklobster who wrote (77585)	10/30/2000 3:51:30 PM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

making asset investments is long term in nature and table pounding is always going to look foolish on occasion. that's why I don't tend to pound the table. Until the chicken comes home to roost, my fist would be sore, if not bloody. There are clearly some compelling reasons to buy gold shares. The dollar is likely unsustainably high, but as I've said before, there will be plenty of time to increase gold investment allocations. Other asset plays might be something like viatel...I recall some table pounding on viatel when it was about 22. it's now under 10. how about covad? wasn't that a table pounder not so long ago? alcoa seems to have come to life today. perhaps the best managed company in america. buy it but don't pound the table it tends to scare the children. the momentum players in oil are giving me a headache with great earnings forecasts for the foreseeable future, I probably shouldn't look everyday but put in stupid low gtc buys and stupid high limit sells and wait for some sheep to wander in from time to time. mt

To: rocklobster who wrote (77585)	10/30/2000 6:09:17 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Rocklobster was just named #99 out of the top 100.... ...alltime "Dance Songs" by VH1. I'm assuming your Rocklobster "handle" is B-52 oriented ? ... anyway; re: <<They say if you yell bear long enough and "got gold" eventually you will be right...>> Well Rock; that like most anything has a bit of truth to it; but you haven't heard me yelling "bear" very long, nor "got gold" very long either... << "true professionals will tell you to buy high sell higher or sell low buy back lower...never fight the trend.. catching falling knifes is a loser's game ">> Actually Rock; I learned long ago; "not" to follow much of what "the Professionals" tell me any longer; as none of those platitudes, euphemisms & old wives tales actually ever made sense; yet alone worked. The "euphemism" of not chasing falling knives... but instead; to wait to buy high & sell higher; is just another market platitude that doesn't exist & really isn't even definable, let alone workable, from any practical reality standpoint.... Fist; on any broad historic basis; the annual return upside in most Bull Markets has been 8-12%. Using the don't buy weakness, don't chase falling knives - but, instead wait to "buy high & sell higher" system; one wouldn't even have stock pop up on the "buy high" radar screen until they had allready peaked & one would be obviously buying the tops - before they even made the "Screen" for being "high" to begin with... On any historic basis; waiting to buy high to sell higher yet; would be much more likely to result in buying tops right before pullbacks... I think Contrarian bottom fishing/knife catching etc - has certainly proven itself over the course of time. Concerning the XAU; I posted the charts earlier showing that there has been little, if no chance to "buy high & sell higher" on the XAU - as virtually every single bottom to the XAU - as been of the violent "V" bottom variety... In volatile cyclicals; one had better be able to spot fundamental value supported & technically indicated, historically proven entry opps and don't jump in with both feet - trying to make an exact bottom call; but rather to use some prudent money managment and to "average into" those bottoms... You MUST be willing to step into capitulaion - into falling knife blow offs - you must... it's the ONLY thing that has consistantly worked imo; if one uses and fundamental valuation guideliness and any technical guidance to making that initial entry opp. The same thing happend with the OSX here; the OSX this year ran non-stop in a quick breakout from OSX 80 to 120ish this spring; if one waited for the "higher high" to buy - one got continually whipsawed by the OSX from 110 to 140 here for the last 6-7 months. This thread has been a great contrarian indicator and has been the antithesis posterchild of "buy high & sell higher" - as once all the "new names" arrived trumpeting the coming "higher highs" here - it was a sell signal. I can not begin to tell you how often I have been chided for taking profits off of these legs, or let alone throwing in a few shorts... it's as if most have failed to look at the OSX chart and all those squiggly up & down lines.... hell of late; there's been a classic buy high & get whipsawed reality to the OSX. If you don't try to buy into major retraces & catch a falling knife - you missed the moves since April - just as you missed the move in the dark days of 1998 and $10 Oil. I have watched newcomer wave, after newcomer wave, arrive on this thread into strength - at the top of each cycle leg; only to get whipsawed as we've rolled between OSX 100 & 140 for 7-8 months here. 6 times alone since we broke thru to OSX 110 early this spring; we've sold off & pulled back hard. The OSX has been the whipsaw posterchild to anyone who waited to buy high & sell higher; as since April of this year; most every single pullback has went to at least a point halfway below the prior rally leg - where the "buy high" buyers entered... you've been killed for months in the OSX waiting to buy on higher highs... killed. Now also please tell me about "not" catching falling knives on the NAZ. Was Oct 1998 not a classic falling knife buying opp; or how about this April-May 2000 ? Rock - the classic "buy high to sell higher" opp we saw in last November to Decembers NAZ breakout - didn't work; no one sold, few if any anyway. Instead everyone soon got killed in the whipsaw blow off. And if they avoided the April-May falling NAZ knife and waited to jump back aboard the NAZ Train as it broke to highs in June - what happened there to all those who didn't want to get cut by any falling knives; but instead waited untill we saw the highs to re-enter ? Rock - buy high & sell higher is pure BS... it worked for a couple of very short "sweetspots" within this Mania Blow off; but usually only in retrospect. Human nature & the actions of traders indicate that it is much more a Monday Morning retrospective "theory" and far, far from a practice.... as the problem was few, if any sold higher... they all got shaken out on the Oct 98, or April 2000, or the July to present shakeouts... few, if any sold into those higher highs. I watched most of the tech threads here on SI - there was virtually no significant move to exit the blow off top - the "higher highs" - instead; greed & human weakness kept waiting for higher highs yet... Actually; most tech investors would be far, far better served in learning "when to sell & take profits" - than in trying to save my "knife catching soul" from ruin & destruction (VBG).... and trust me; few have continually pounded the table in taking more profits off of more OSX "legs" all during the last 2 years than myself and "allways" to criticism I may ad - that I was going to "miss the boat" , or I did... I remember fighting the "max margin" battle early on & how did that turn out... ? Individual Trades are just that - individual trades. Hopefully people use stops & limits for buys and sells & money managment. No one hits every trade. I made lots of money on Viatel, lost some as well. For every Viatel that gets stopped out when it breaks the wrong way; there is a BHI, a CLB, a OII, a GLBL falling knife catch that made a great hit. On COVD - did play the early on DCB's - but I walked long ago & said why I did... missed a significant later pop; but also missed the fall to where it lies today. Individual "trades" are about taking your swings; counting on your batting average - knowing that taking the swings - when you see "your pitch" is going to pay off on a percentage basis. You'll have some pop ups, some stikeouts and some Homers in the upper deck as well. - Trades, are trades - the batting average is what counts and money management is the most under-rated component to trading. But; making a portfolio weighted shift - that's a bit more of a serious "event" and that's what we're talking about here... From where I stand; catching the capitulation falling knife blow offs in both the NAZ and the OSX is about the only thing I have seen work consistantly that has paid off in significant returns ! ... and now the XAU is presenting both the best technically AND fundametnally supported "falling knife" of all - and you guys NOW want to criticize "THIS" Falling Knife - the Mother of all falling knives - the Golden Blade !?!?!? .... wrong ! - this is "Big & Easy Money" deja vu all over again... just like OSX 48 & $10 Oil... same sentiment, same criticism, same early critcisms as we "ease & average" into a little continued weakness in building a core position into the sweetspot of darkness & sentiment capitulation. The XAU is merely a "Big & Easy Money" entry opp - very much Deja Vu all over again & it's just "another" knife in a good days work...