Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zbyslaw owczarczyk who wrote (13757)	10/30/2000 10:07:53 PM
From: Z268	Respond to of 24042

<so tell me gbh how much is worth forecast beyond 2001-year form now. The research firm was wrong by 50% in the 1999 forecast> You are right on. RHK had to revise their DWDM components forecast upwards twice this year alone. This year's market size is twice of what they forecasted back in March/April. No one knows how the bandwidth cycle growth rate really looks like, other than there is continuous demand for extra bandwidth, and that demand keeps growing, albeit at varying rates. If the multimedia applications envisioned all come into play, the amount of bandwidth require is somewhere between 200-400 times that deployed today! (For the uninitiated, the bandwidth cycle goes like this: applications begat demand for more bandwidth which drives extra deployment which begat further traffic which begat new applications which begat demand for more bandwidth, and so on.) Imagine if we were living in the era of the horse and buggy, and three percent of the population have cars - how many reliable forecasts do you think there were of the number of lane miles of road required every year for the next 5 years? Not many, I would venture. Most people, forecasters included, were not able to foresee how cars would be used, how many miles would the average car be driven per day etc. So are all of the Optical-related stocks worth investing? Only those ones which survive, I would say, and this applies only for the long term investor. Of course, if you have a 3 week time horizon, perhaps you should listen to the Lehmans analysts. He is, after all, only a simple analyst, trying to earn a living.....a good living, obviously :))