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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (41912)	10/31/2000 9:38:48 AM
From: Curtis E. Bemis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

UBS Warburg on CSCO CSCO: QUARTERLY PRVIEW FOR CISCO - TO REPORT NEXT MONDAY Summary: We expect Cisco will meet or more likely exceed our estimates of $6.292B in revenue and $0.17 in EPS for 1Q2001. Cisco reports Monday, November 6th after the close. We believe upside to our estimates would be driven from better than expected revenues, rather than profit margins. We maintain our Buy rating with a 12 month price target of $85. We believe that as long as Cisco continues to grow over 10% sequentially in revenues and delivers its consistent penny better than expected EPS, the company will trade at a premium to its growth rate of 40%-50%. Highlights: Our $6.292B revenue estimate reflects a 10% and 61% sequential and yoy revenue growth, respectively. We believe sequential revenue growth of 12% or more is likely in the quarter, which would reflect a yoy revenue growth of 64%. Sequential revenue growth for Cisco has accelerated from 10.3% in 1Q00 to 16.3% in 4Q00. It is unlikely Cisco will show ongoing sequential revenue growth acceleration beyond 16%. We feel, however, that CSCO can continue to generate close to 8%-12% sequential revenue growth for the next several quarters after this current October. Our model currently assumes 8%. Thus, we are comfortable with our estimates. Our confidence in the current October quarter is high given many factors. First of all, Cisco backlog at September 25th was about $3.83B, up from $922M a year ago. Backlog is defined as products to be shipped within 120 days to customers with approved credit status. Second of all, Cisco's mix of business is very diversified. Enterprise, Service Provider and Small/Medium Business represent about 45%, 40% and 15% respectively. Continued market share gain in the Enterprise market, including the ramp of the Enterprise VoIP products, and virtually no exposure to legacy technology in service provider markets also provide confidence of a good quarter. Cisco announced a strategic win with New Zealand government in the quarter whereby Cisco will replace 130 PBXs with IP servers and 8,000 IP phones. We also saw a major VoIP component supplier, AudioCodes (AUDC-$36.38-Buy) announce Cisco as a 10% customer for the first time ever in the September quarter. Cisco also continues to expand its service provider business overseas with wins more wins in Asia and Europe announced in the quarter. While Cisco does have exposure to emerging service providers that have financial issues, we believe the impact in the October quarter was not significant. Finally, indications from chip and EMS companies suggest that the October quarter for Cisco was solid. Cisco's comments on guidance for the future should be even more relevant this quarter given the current investor uncertainty regarding future trends in service provider spending. We believe Cisco's guidance will as always be cautiously optimistic. Clearly, there is more fundamental sector risk now than six months ago given financing issues with service providers. This may temper Cisco's guidance a bit, but probably not to the point where we believe Cisco will back off from its view that the industry is growing 30%-50% and that Cisco hopes to grow faster than the overall market. Cisco will be one of the companies presenting at the 5th annual UBS Warburg Global Telecom Conference held in New York on November 13th - November 15th.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (41912)	10/31/2000 10:00:43 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 77400

This has become a brutal thread. Nasdaq down 20% this year. One could make a case that csco has held up quite well under these circumstances. Last night i heard some money manager say that this latest round of nasdaq selling has everything to do with tax selling by institutions(to offset gains) as well as some more window dressing. Buying the old economy while selling the new will backfire on them. Next week with the election out of the way and with csco beating the street we should be able to turn this thing around. And Greenspan should be at least signalling the end of higher rates even if he doesnt lower them on 11/15.