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To: BigBull who wrote (77624)10/31/2000 11:44:18 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
MVK at 15 1/4...

I'm loading up again. Last buy order comes if 13 1/2 or lower is seen. Actually if 13 1/2 is seen I'll probably use options.

TAM got upgraded today (essentially the same business as MVK).

If nothing else MVK is very tradeable. 16+ will be seen again. Slowly lowering my average cost.

We need a rally back above OSX 120 and we'll get some significant short covering on MVK. Over 3 mil shares short, volume today a pathetic 100K and it's down 1. What a joke.

If it breaks 15 it'll be near an 18 month low going into the best 12+ months of earnings for tubulars.



To: BigBull who wrote (77624)10/31/2000 12:53:52 PM
From: jim_p  Respond to of 95453
 
BigBull,

There is no question in my mind that the tech bubble has not completely unwound. The big unanswered question remains to be the degree of leverage and excesses associated with the bubble which will be revealed as prices continue to unwind.

Interesting times:

IPO markets are now closed

Junk bond markets are now closed

Rumors continue of large losses at some financial intuitions.

Argentinean Brady bond yields are indicating a possible default by Argentina.

Greenspan speech to the Cato Institute last week was very interesting, trying to talk down the price of oil and sustain investor confidence?

Uncertainty stems from the credit/financing structure which has supported the tech bubble. This always comes apart once a bubble bursts and the full extent of the leverage is always a revelation not to mention the scale of participation. As yet, the bubble may not have unwound enough to expose this vulnerability which is why it still looks orderly. In time, the full scale of credit/financial vulnerability will be revealed.

Jim