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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (77670)10/31/2000 10:19:16 PM
From: kormac  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
From James Smith of PEI.

The bottom line is .... well the bottom line ...

----------------------------------------

The stock markets made an impressive rally today--ie "panic buying"
, but we are not convinced this equates to a "sustainable" rally
going forward. Our timing models have indicated a Panic Cycle
Week for both the DOW & the S&P for this week. Often a market
that shows "panic buying" in the first part of a "Panic Cycle Week"
will suddenly turn to "Panic Selling" by the end of the week.
Is the market discounting a Bush Victory too soon? Has the market
completely forgotten about tension in the MidEast? Will an imminent
US attack on Bin Laden (payback for the USS Cole) backfire by further
radicalizing the Arab World against the US???? By the way, what does
Bill Clinton have to lose by striking now against Bin Laden???. He
won't have to deal the the mess...he can leave that to his successor.
We still believe a move down to 2438 basis the Dec Nasdaq;
9063 basis the Dec DOW; & 1267 basis theDec S&P is quite likely
before this correction has run its course.

Next week, if not sooner, attention may revert to the MidEast. Why?--
Panic Cycle on both OIL and GOLD!!



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (77670)11/1/2000 12:36:24 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Respond to of 95453
 
More trouble in Asia...

cbs.marketwatch.com

Scary stuff.

I think we have smooth sailing NT (partly because slowdowns need to be confirmed over several months), but an Asia slowdown, combined with high energy and reduced cap ex spending on tech is still not factored into the markets at these prices.



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (77670)11/1/2000 5:14:45 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 95453
 
Excellent discussion of the dollar and gold.

contraryinvestor.com