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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ratan lal who wrote (34164)	11/1/2000 5:01:40 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I think if RMBS has a monopoly and they refuse to license some companies, or try to exploit them, then those companies can arbitrarily use the technology and RMBS would have a tough time trying to explain to a judge or jury why they refused to license that company or tried to extort much higher license fees. Not a problem. Rambus can license or not to whomever they choose. There is no legal dispute in this regard. The strategy is very sound as long as the threat remains credible. Which in regard to Micron it is. In regard to Micron and INTC. Micron has just announced that is has no current plans to work with Intel's P4. This might change of course in the future. But at the present time Micron has jumped completely into bed with AMD. In the press release (I don't have the link on me - it is a few days old) Micron states this has nothing to do with the current lawsuit with Rambus. Maybe, maybe not. But this is Micron's current stance. Please also note that INTC invested $500 million in Micron with Micron's promise that it would produce RDRAM. Micron did not produce RDRAM, instead it utilized a classic stalling technique made famous by such companies as Microsoft and RCA back in the 1930s, and INTC has since cashed out its investment in Micron. Micron and INTC are not on real good terms at this time. In any event, Ardethan's analysis seems right on point. This settlement with Samsung is big. From calculations I have seen this does not just put 45% of the DRAM market into RMBS' camp but 52%. In regard to RMBS and INTC, I'm not so sure things are as hairy as made out to be. I bet INTC will get a sweet-heart deal from Rambus in regard to royalty rates, giving it yet another competitive advantage via AMD, VIA, etc. Just speculation, but I think INTC will garner more favorable terms given the work they have done and are currently doing in RMBS' favor. Tinker P.S. Did I mention how big this Samsung signing is. Apparently it is not 45% of the DRAM market signed up now, it is 52%. From what I understand just from last Qs report, which had less than 20% of the DRAM industry signed up, and not even for the full quarter, RMBS had $16 million in revenue it could have reported but held back. RMBS had more free cash flow than revenues. It now has 52% of the DRAM industry signed on for all forms of DRAM. We are talking some huge numbers. I think I'm being conservative when I say the forward P/E is 40 or less at the present time. This is about as cheap as Qualcomm got before its Ericsson settlement.