To: lorne who wrote (60423 ) 11/2/2000 8:51:41 AM From: Alex Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116762 Australian Gold Hedging Starts To Hurt Producers By Stephen Bell Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES PERTH (Dow Jones)--The hedge books of Australian gold producers has reached "concerning proportions", raising the potential debt bill of many companies, industry analyst John Macdonald said Thursday. Macdonald, an analyst at the stockbroker CIBC World Markets, said the Australian currency's dive towards 50 U.S. cents has pushed the hedge books further into the red over the past few months. He estimates that the four leading Australian gold producers -- Normandy Mining Ltd. (A.NDY), Newcrest Mining Ltd. (A.NEW), Sons of Gwalia Ltd. (A.SGW) and Delta Gold Ltd. (A.DGL) -- face a total $A1.8 billion in potential liabilities from their gold and currency hedge books. "As an industry, the numbers are beginning to mount to concerning proportions," Macdonald said in a recent research note, which was based on company disclosures up to the end of September. "The Australian dollar has fallen further since the end of September, extending the notional liabilities," he said. Macdonald estimates that the total bank debt of the four gold companies stands at around A$2.5 billion. "Add in (hedging) exposures to smaller groups like Centaur (A.CTR) (minus $150 million at the end of June 30), and there may be potential for an unpredictable turn of events if any bank breaks the ranks of support in any once instance." Macdonald told Dow Jones Newswires that gold hedging problems seem to be centred on Australian companies, with major overseas groups such as Canada's Franco Nevada Mining Corp (T.FN), Homestake Mining Co (HM), Gold Fields Ltd. (GOLD) and Harmony Gold Mining Co (O.HRM) either unhedged or running relatively small books. The world's biggest gold producer, AngloGold (AU) of South Africa, last week revealed it has 16.5 million ounces hedged equivalent to roughly two years' production. "AngloGold does hedge," Macdonald said. "But they are not subject to the same issues we (Australians) are. When they do hedge, they hedge in US dollars, so they are still in front." According to AngloGold, the marked-to-market (liquidation value) of its hedge book as of September 30 was US$80.4 million. Greg Barns, chief executive of industry lobby group the Australian Gold Council, said the latest statistics show that Australian producers are running down their hedge books, but very slowly. "The preliminary numbers for the September quarter indicate a further decline in the hedging position of Australian producers, from 42 million ounces in the June quarter to 41 million ounces in the September quarter," he said. "That is the second consecutive quarter of decline in hedge book positions." Barns said Sons of Gwalia hasn't hedged any gold this year, nor has WMC Ltd (WMC) and "Normandy hasn't done anything serious". He also said that gold producers are "starting to get some benefit from the lower Australian dollar and that is reflected in the quite good profit results for the September quarter". Barns said that Australian producers now have the "most transparent hedge book positions in the world". This follows the Council's release last month of a new hedging standard, designed to "improve the format and level of disclosure of hedging of precious metals and foreign currencies by gold producers". asia.biz.yahoo.com