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To: tekboy who wrote (13849)	11/2/2000 12:09:37 AM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Very nice article -- I like his style. Pop quiz number two: Capex growth by telecom carriers in 2000 will come in at about 30%. Anybody want to guess what the carriers were projecting a year ago in terms of capex growth? How about 20%? Maybe even a lowball 15%? Nope--try 7% to 10%.... Industry gurus Ryan Hankin Kent, for example, estimate that the global optical transport market will grow 36% in 2001, which is a lot faster than the 21% increase they see for the entire market.

To: tekboy who wrote (13849)	11/2/2000 1:28:54 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 24042

A great article! This is especially good to keep in mind: The blanket statement that "capital spending by telecom carriers" will grow by X% masks a huge range of growth rates among different types of equipment. Next year, for example, spending on voice-related equipment will probably decline dramatically at the same time that spending on optical gear continues to increase in a big way. Industry gurus Ryan Hankin Kent, for example, estimate that the global optical transport market will grow 36% in 2001, which is a lot faster than the 21% increase they see for the entire market. Pat