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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (61745)	11/2/2000 7:06:22 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

thought for the day---GOP sweeps all 3 next week--Fed then stays steady for much longer than necessary because of their fear of Bush's mega tax cut plan (too much stimulus if monetary policy also joins in)--stock market begins to sell off, partly because Republicans control everything and partly because the prevailing thinking will shift to the Fed being very reluctant to soon move rates lower due to Bush plan

To: Gary Burton who wrote (61745)	11/2/2000 8:39:09 AM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Looks to me as though Don Hays is losing it. There's no reason for a bear market at this time. My understanding is that it would be VERY rare for a true bear market to develop with interest rates below 8%. LT rates are under 6% so we are a long ways from that point. Investors still find equities to be a better bet than bonds at these rates. That's an important factor. Another consideration is basic supply and demand. There are considerable inflows into the market. Demographics indicate that this will continue for another decade at least. This alone should keep the bull alive. Sector rotation is likely and that's what we've seen this year. Money has moved out of tech. That might continue, but not until they've moved higher than today's levels. I'm betting on a rally until December. Another rotation out of tech might occur at that time. JMHO Dave

To: Gary Burton who wrote (61745)	11/2/2000 9:21:49 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Looks like stocks are lining up for another correction in the near term since the signals are all in the red alert area (> 80% sell signals). I thought we'd get to 11,000/1440/3500 by end of week. If the Nasdaq continues weak in its current bounce, then it's in probable danger of breaking the May low since the corrections are on the order of 10-20 percent.