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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (34283)	11/3/2000 3:46:17 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I just snagged this clip from a post on the Qualcomm board which could go with the trough/cash allocation percentage data if one follows it: Message 14716998 "Moreover, a mutual fund tracking service called Trim Tabs estimates that mutual fund cash has reached 5.1% of assets, the highest cash position since November of 1998. Thus, stocks are lean and mean by dint of the sharp September-October correction and cash has been building on the side lines. Once past the election, this market could gratify those which sincerely want be rich." I haven't checked the source (Trim Tabs) and was curious with the grammatical pharse "those which sincerely want be rich" line, but it would be interesting to find out the data of cash percentage this time around to see if it couples with previous trough times that Malkiel spells out in his book in 1970, 1974, 1982, 1987, 1990, 1994 and 1998. BB

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (34283)	11/3/2000 9:59:43 AM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

It's a game that goes on day in and day out, year in and year out - over and over through all types of cycles. "Wash, rinse, repeat..." That is so true. Often when I hear someone talking about how this time, the market is really going to crash, I think about that old TV comedy "Sanford & Son". In that show the main character was often shown with his hand over his heart feigning a heart attack and yelling "this is it, this is the big one". But it never was. Every market downturn brings out the stories/posts about going all to cash, about some guru or method that predicted 1929 and 1987 and who is now predicting another crash, about some magic number the market Must fall to "find support". The sad part is that many good people lose money because of this. For some, it is a newbie initiation rite. For some it is a valuable learning experience. Very valuable. StockHawk

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (34283)	11/4/2000 10:10:39 AM
From: StockHawk	Respond to of 54805

Simply go back to those longer term charts of G&K types... In yesterday's IBD they had an interview with Sam Isaly. He has been managing a Biotech/Health Science mutual fund since 1989. His fund is the top performer among biotechs for the past 10 years and it is up about 80% this year. I thought the most interesting part of the interview was when he was asked about his biggest mistake. He told about selling shares in Abgenix: "It rose so fast it became a high percent of my portfolio and I sold some. The pros always sell winners when they become too large a part of a portfolio. Amateurs keep stocks, and in 20 years they are rich."