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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chaz who wrote (34325)	11/3/2000 11:10:18 PM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

"Sounds great...yet i've heard people say that if you bought the best stocks at their highs (before a crash) that it would have taken a investor over 6 years or so to get his original investment back?" Well let's see how we stack up. Note: I'm having to eye ball the SI charts so I'm going to be off a bit with the top prices! SEBL previous high $118 (just a week or so ago!) now $114 1/2 ITWO approx $220 (early this year) now $170 1/2 QCOM $199-200 (early this year) now $70 1/2 NTAP approx. $148-150 (just a few weeks ago) now $108 1/2 JDSU about $140 (early this year) now $81 CREE $195-200 (early this year) now $119 3/4 NT approx. $85 (a month or so ago) now $45 CSCO $82 (early this year) now $56 3/4 GMST $108 (early this year) now $72 What can we conclude? I don't really know outside of some 'random' thoughts. These being.. Of the group SEBL, NTAP and NT made their new highs most recently. Of those 3 only SEBL looks like it's poised to make a new high soon (next week is my bet). Why is that? Thoughts that come to mind: These are newer gorillas (SEBL, NTAP) and kings (NT). This has a couple of implications. First, their tornados are still fresh and the companies have not had a chance yet to really get extremely ahead of themselves stock price wise yet (pretty easy to hold down prices with the stock market year we've been having!). SEBL and NTAP sport high PE's but their phenomenal growth rates keep knocking their PE's down again. Second, because their tornados are fresh (CRM/e-CRM and NAS) there is still a huge amount of growth propelling them. These tornados are still on the steep incline. ITWO got dropped and hasn't recovered (my guess.. BB would be the expert here), even though their b2b tornado was 'fresh' because she doesn't have the strong financial statement Siebel has. Siebel has a money machine in the 'traditional' CRM market. ITWO doesn't have their money machine quite so finally tuned yet. NT's tornado (fiber optics) is well known but their role as king over LU didn't get recognized until just recently when the market numbers started clearly showing NT's lead over LU, ALA and the rest of the pack had surpassed 2x and was GROWING - not decreasing. In short.. SEBL and NTAP's highs are newer because they are growing, for the most part, faster than the other gorilla/kings. Also because they are gorilla's, not kings, they don't have to 'share' the sector with too many others. It's hard to knock the sector (e.g. fiber optics) when your the only serious player in it. There is no one else to 'screw up' the party with a bad earnings report or cc! Note to self: ITWO could/should join this party soon as she matures and her financials start getting as strong as Siebel's. Need to study up on ITWO more.. and quickly.