Slacker,
Re: The battle for claim to "Fastest Growing Technology".
For the first time in many years, and based on YOY growth, TDMA-EDGE has supplanted cdmaOne as the worlds "Fastest Growing Technology".
Tero predicted it earlier this year.
I argued that it was a very temporary thing. This was before the Korean subsidy ban, and before DoCoMo's 'i-mode' cleaned DDI's high tech clock.
Score: Tero 2 - Eric 0. Tero, if you remember, called the Anatel (Brazil) spectrum decision.
The UWCC forecast 59 million subs at end of 2000, an increase of 24 million over year ending subs in 1999 (35 million).
It appears that they are well on their way to meeting that projection.
CDG will miss its 100 million sub projection (revised or revalidated with an old slide in June) after the Korean subsidy ban was in effect, by at least 10 million subs.
On the plus side, cdmaOne is rapidly narrowing the gap in NA where it will soon become the leading NA technology, but TDMA-EDGE is increasing its lead in LA.
The year is not over but CDMA will need a strong sub quarter to recapture the lead.
Tero has stated that this is a trend. I have stated that it is a short term trend that will reverse itself in 1 to 3 quarters.
Never the less. The growth of TDMA-EDGE is projected by Wheelan, Volpe, Brown as presented by CDG to be closer to the growth of CDMA through 2004, than many on these boards think it will be.
So what is the good news for us Qualcommers that frequent this Nokia board.
* cdmaOne/cdma2000 should knock TDMA-EDGE (IS-136 TDMA) out of the lead in North America in this Final Quarter of year 2000 and is well on its way to being the dominant wireless mobile technology in North America with > 50% Market Share here by 2004 or earlier as most wireless analysts project.
* cdmaOne is the fastest growing technology in LA by a margin of 2:1
* cdmaOne/cdma2000 continues to do well in Asia-Pacific even before China kicks in (which it will within the next 12 months), which will make it the fastest growing technology in Asia, where TDMA-EDGE has virtually no presence.
I have inserted bracketed clips in italics from CDG's recent press release titled "More Than 71 Million Global Subscribers Choose Cdma For Access To Mobile Communications", dated Oct. 26, 2000, within the text of the
>> TDMA-EDGE SUBSCRIBERS TOTAL 53.5 MILLION WORLDWIDE
November 16, 2000 UWCC Press Release Bellevue, WA
TDMA-EDGE Wireless Standard Continues To Lead In The Americas
The Universal Wireless Communications Consortium (UWCC) announced today, by the end of the third Quarter of 2000, there were 53.5 million TDMA-EDGE subscribers worldwide. This represents a 78% increase in worldwide customers in the past 12 months.
[Per CDG: worldwide CDMA subscribers for the period 3Q00 exceeded 71 million, representing a 73 percent increase over the previous year.]
"Subscribers continue to choose TDMA-EDGE," stated Sheila Mickool, President & CEO of the UWCC. Mickool added, "The continuous global growth of TDMA-EDGE technology positions it well to provide future 3G wireless data services to the mass market."
The most widely used wireless technology in Latin America & the Caribbean region continues to be TDMA-EDGE with 24.1 million subscribers, representing a 121% increase year over year.
[Per CDG: The Latin American region experienced the largest percentage increase, growing more than 234 percent over 3Q99 to nearly 10.5 million subscribers.]
Chris Pearson, Executive Vice President of the UWCC, stated, "Latin America continues to be the fastest growing market for TDMA-EDGE wireless technology." Additionally, TDMA-EDGE continues to be the leading technology in North America where it recorded 27.3 million subscribers, representing a 61% increase over third quarter of 1999.
[Per CDG: CDMA has maintained a dominant position in North America, with 27 million users (a 105 percent increase over the previous year).]
The UWCC is a Bellevue, Washington-based international consortium of more than 100 wireless carriers and vendors supporting the TDMA-EDGE & WIN technology standards. TDMA-EDGE network operators currently serve TDMA as well as well as millions of Analog subscribers within their networks. The TDMA-EDGE ‘Taking Wireless Beyond the Call’ technology brand represents not only second generation enhanced services but also 3G compliant high-speed wireless data and Internet access technology to be available anytime, anywhere. For more information, visit the UWCC website at www.tdma-edge.org.
Board Members of the UWCC include: Alcatel USA, AT&T Wireless Services (USA), BellSouth Cellular Corp./Cingular Wireless (USA), BCP S.A. (Brazil), Cable and Wireless (United Kingdom), Cellcom (Israel), Celumovil (Colombia), Compaq Computer Corporation, Ericsson, Industar Digital PCS (USA), Lucent Technologies, Mobikom SDN BHD (Malaysia), Motorola, Movilnet (Venezuela), Nokia, Nortel Networks, Rogers Wireless (Canada), SBC Wireless/Cingular Wireless (USA), Sony, Telecom Personal (Argentina), Telefonica Unifon (Argentina), and VimpelCom (Russia). <<
End Note. For obvious reasons the UWCC does not mention Asia Pacific.
TDMA-EDGE is a Two Trick Pony.
[Per CDG: The Asia Pacific region now totals more than 33.5 million subscribers. Subscribers in other regions of the world, including Europe, Middle East, and Africa reached nearly one million.]
Neither the UWCC or CDG mention EMEA.
Also Note: I have not run a check on the numbers. I am simply going by the text of, and calculations contained in the Press Release.
I am off to sulk for awhile. I don't like the score card. <g>
To make matters worse Villanova is wiping up on the "Fighting Blue Turkeys" of Delaware.
- Eric - |