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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (4526)	11/4/2000 11:55:40 AM
From: herenow_2	Respond to of 5482

Analysts First let me say we've probably all lost some real pocket change and are feeling testy. Civil discourse might help to make some of it back.... Twenty years ago when I was young and had more brains than money I worked for a competitor of IDC and Gartner group which is now defunct. We did all types of mkt. projections one, two and ten years out. I can give you some old forecasts of the PC market from 82 which would have you rolling in the aisles. I know analyst opinions are only as good as their source info and the analyst's assumptions, cumulative knowledge etc. I consider all forecasts suspect from the get go and there is no real way of knowing how good the projections are. The only way to evaluate them is to follow one analyst long term and get a feel for their sources, track record and experience. I like Sue Billat and Infrastructure, to which I subscribe. For me, all the others are background noise and very destructive noise at that. My two cents.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (4526)	11/4/2000 1:36:47 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

Name calling is not appreciated... Neither is making a specific point of coming over to this thread to paste information, with self-interest bias your principle objective, which intentionally rubs salt in the wound of Klic investors. There was simply no need for that. Civil discourse involves not simply respectful language, but concious choices NOT to antagonize other individuals just so YOU can settle in your comfort zone. In light of Friday's events, your post 4521 was a flame for this thread ...in effect saying (logic highly questionable), 'The sector may be in the doldrums, but Klic just plain sucks.' It was your choice to place that post here; you reap what you sow. You go on and on about Sue Billat. A challenge Brian: since this is the first time I recall you praising an analyst (after countless dozens of posts castigating them), name me another analyst 'that deserves our praise' who has harsh things to say about AMAT. You're presenting your opinion about Sue Billat as something supposedly based on objective reasoning; so prove your objectivity. AMAT has received numerous downgrades of late. Could you please paste here one of those opinions which 'deserves our praise' similar to that you cited for Klic. I bet you can't criticize stocks you own to the same degree you spam those you don't. Or, let me guess, AMAT doesn't get criticized... You're not a cheerleader? Come now Brian. Get real. (For example, you've probably made 500 posts to the AMAT thread in the last 6 months. Show me 5 (1%!) that directly criticize AMAT. Better yet, my post 4523 on this thread was about as forthright as it gets...I cannot imagine posting more damning information a stock. Show me one instance where you even approach this with AMAT.) You say, FWIW, I posted what Billat had said on CNBC because it was consistent with what myself, Cary and Ian had said earlier in the day that KLIC is not a barometer of industry health. FWIW is clearly the most important phrase here. To quote from a post made yesterday on the AMAT thread (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14721157), 'I think that reading (the) AMAT thread is rather useless. Thread predictions are as bad as those of the analysts or industry sources. And that's not because of the posters qualifications. Thread has great minds at work. The chip + equip demand is simply unpredictable. Information waterfall only adds to confusion and irrational decisions.' When you say, Brian, '...was consistent with what myself, Cary and Ian had said...' does the phrase 'preaching to the choir' ring a bell? Billat also made some comments about Klic falling behind in the bonder business etc.. This is in complete contradiction to what the vast majority of analysts are saying about the company. An example, from S & P (downloaded today): Utilization rates at chip fabrication plants remain at historic highs, which will create demand for bonder products necessary to assemble chips on to packages. KLIC holds over 60% of the market for wire bonders, and is ahead of its competition in developing advanced packaging systems and materials.[my emphasis]. In fact, Klic has already tested FCT for bumping 300 mm wafers...http://www.eoenabled.com/edtn/out.asp?a=SBN&i=kulicke&n=33586386&tid=0&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Esemibiznews%2Ecom%2Fstory%2FOEG20000714S0005&title=K%26S+shows+first+300%2Dmm+solder+bumped+wafer+produced+by+Flip+Chip+venture Finally, since you failed to respond regarding the consensus analyst thing, I assume you agree. That is, since your opinion has been that the analysts have been abysmally wrong about the sector as whole, then it is equally true their almost unanimous negative opinion must be abysmally wrong for Klic as well.