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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4532)	11/4/2000 10:10:33 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

KLIC is probably in a buy range, now. In your opinion would it be reasonable for an investor to buy say a one third position at ~ 11.5, another third at ~ 10 and take a final third at ~ 8.5? Would such a course of action be prudent even without any sign that the business cycle had bottomed? Would you expect the stock market to bottom a good 6 months or so before the business cycle bottoms? Are there any other semi-equips that you also feel are currently in buying range at present? Sam

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4532)	11/5/2000 8:23:40 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Cary - With the amount and doggerel and drivel (....for Brian to accuse me of posting drivel! Sheeeesh) flying in all directions around here, it’s no wonder such confusion abounds, especially as represented by your post (and that last one by Brian). Once again, Cary, not only do you assume you understand others’ points of view, but you proceed to incorporate that assumption into a premise that others are wrong because they don’t agree with your read. It all boils down to hubris... You quoted Jurgis's post to me, but again you seem not to understand his point. Bull. The thrust of his post was ‘information be damned’. Now I realize that this is something strange for a neuroscientist to be supporting. Here’s the analogy - in the lab, it’s the best of all worlds to have a competent bench worker and completely up-to-date, brilliant scientist as your partner. This does not translate well at all to the investing arena. Being well informed in science does not lead to biotech investing acumen nor does an in-depth knowledge of the SEM sector contribute significantly to equipment stock investing. No, I didn’t miss Jurgis's point. You did...because it’s such a paradox and because it reveals a wise and prudent understanding of the fickleness of human behavior. Yes, Jurgis stated that a target price approach is the way to invest in SEM. But this statement was based on his overriding message and theme: that no matter how compelling the data presented on SI (or elsewhere), and regardless of the background of the poster(s), the amount and/or quality of information does not correlate well with stock-price movement in the sector. Jurgis said it beautifully, ‘Information waterfall only adds to confusion and irrational decisions.’ Everyone assumes the better informed we are, the better investors we’ll be. While I’m not advocating ignorance, when human emotions are the bedrock of an enterprise, all bets are off. You have lumped me with Brian and Ian, because we all disagree with your information and logic.... Wrong. I lumped the three of you together because each of you, in your own way, expressed unscathed confidence in your personal viewpoints (until very recently) and were short to slam and ridicule and slam contrarian views from analysts and individual investors. This was much more apparent in Ian and Brian than yourself (in fact, your perspective was most enjoyable to read since your writing skills outflank 99% of the rest of SI). There's really no need for me to restate my general thesis for investing since I’ve been consistent in expressing it for quite some time on SI: ‘beware of hubris’. Am I full of it (hubris, that is) as much as you or Ian or whomever? Damn straight. I do my DD on individual stocks and invest in them - and stick with them - until I no longer like what I see. This is/was true for KLIC, HDII, ARIA etc. I am a trained scientist (and try to contribute some of my background to the Neuroscience thread). I’ve learned over the years that my training would NOT contribute one bit towards investing in biotechnology. Apples and aardvarks. Thus, contrary to your post a couple days ago, I knew and know diddly squat about medical equipment stocks. I simply liked the idea of a non-invasive cardiovascular monitoring device and I was impressed with the methodical and patient approach of the company (HDII) towards the product. Thus it was not all that surprising that it received approval on Friday...but that’s a self-serving statement, leaving the impression I can pick ‘em like this all the time. NOT. I probably have had as many successes and failures at any given point in time than the next investor. I am no more bogged down in proving my ultimate ‘king of the hill’ status as you are defensive when challenged in a manner similar to your accusation. In the end, Cary, I think you're a bright guy and we can have some interesting exchanges. The fact that we disagree on issues and fling some mud is just part of the game. Best wishes, Scott