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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (61880)	11/5/2000 5:43:36 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

When Genius is Humbled: A personal anecdote re: the market. I have a cousin who is a genius at tech. He thought he was a stock market genius as well. Made 200k trading between 1997 and 1999. But lost 300k this year. Now down 100k net. Wants me to bail him out which I will not do. A word to the wise. ANYBODY can be hit with big losses if they get overconfidant.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (61880)	11/5/2000 5:28:30 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Respond to of 99985

Zeev, My main reason for being bullish on the Euro is that I am aware of 2 large companies that are buying the Euro (related companies which benefit from a strong Euro) WITHOUT any form of hedging. That is my primary reason. My secondary reason is how oversold it is. What can turn it around? Maybe if another European country adopts the currency? Maybe raising of interest rates further there? Maybe a weakening dollar? Allot can. If we have a strengthening of the Euro, it will HELP IBM and many companies which missed earning this past quarter because of a weak euro. Who is to say money has not already been drained from US markets and is now being slowly put into the euro? If you haven't noticed, allot of excess has been drained from especially NAZ companies the past 6 months. We have an excessively strong dollar. My 'Mother rally' is based on the belief it will become par with the Euro for a season...and for a season we will have a goldilocks situation for all. That will last only a season as I can see that business is in the early stages of slowing too much. Briefly, I am a painting contractor. A steel factory I do work for told me that they are dead. They have laid off 3/4 of their work force. For 30 years, when they slow, 'we' feel it 9 months later. Also, there is no such thing as a 'soft landing'. The rate increases the past year will not be fully felt till next spring. IMO, it was too much. Steve D.