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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (4536)	11/5/2000 12:35:56 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Jerome, good points >what events or circumstances from this point onward would cause KLIC's price to appreciate? Its not going to be investor confidence, or beating lowered expectations, so something else will have to be a catalyst.< There's no hurry to buy. Gottfried

To: Jerome who wrote (4536)	11/5/2000 3:20:07 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

Why not wait until the dust settles for a few weeks prior to adding more KLIC? I have not owned KLIC for about 2 years. Dust does not settle without the stock moving higher. information waterfall gives immediate distortion to the price of any stock You can call it whatever you like. If stocks were efficiently priced in the short run, there would be no trading opportunities. If you really felt that KLIC was going to go to ll.6 to 10 and then to 8.5 , why not wait it out and do your buying at 8.5? I have no idea whether KLIC will go down to these levels. I proposed them to Cary rather arbitrarily as potential scale-down target prices to accumulate shares, since Cary indicated that he thought KLIC was probably now in buying range. This is a disciplined style of investing that Cary utilized very successfully in 1998 and 1999 as you probably are aware. I would say that it is based on the premise that it is extremely difficult for investors to identify precise inflection points on an a priori basis because the market has a tendency to overdo it both on the upside and the downside. Therefore, as long as transaction costs are low, it pays to gradually scale into and out of positions, as in dollar cost averaging. Cary has been correctly bearish on semi-equip companies for some time, and I was somewhat surprised to hear him say that he thought KLIC was now attractive. I consider him an astute investor and I was simply trying to draw him out a bit on the levels at which he might change his opinion, and whether he thought other companies in the sector might also be nearing attractive levels. What events or circumstances from this point onward would cause KLIC's price to appreciate? A KLIC turnaound need not be event-driven and company- specific. I view KLIC as a flea on the back of the elephant, being kicked around rather violently by industry forces outside of its control. The only reason it is interesting is that speculators may be drawn to the added volatility. I do not consider KLIC to be in the same league as AMAT, KLAC or NVLS, to name but three examples. The next significant "event" I envision will be James Morgan's guidance and visibility on AMAT's upcoming CC, even though AMAT is a front-end manufacturer and KLIC is back-end. KLIC simply has a higher beta and a lower alpha than AMAT, but the correlation coefficient is high. This makes KLIC for me a less attractive long term investment candidate, although sometimes a more attractive trading vehicle. Sam