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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4547)	11/6/2000 3:53:19 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

Cary, Where you see in my points of view confusion, failure to distinguish various factors, misplaced perceptions, etc., I see quite clear logic, carefully constructed presentations, undeniably substantiated opinions, and credibility to match my convictions. I'm not presuming to claim you are 'right' or 'wrong', Cary; like you, I'll strongly defend my positions and state what I perceive to be 'true'. I feel you were blinded to the summer/fall downdraft in the sector because of your intimate association with the industry. In fact, in my view, it is the inability of you and so many others on the AMAT thread to do exactly what you accuse me of - distinguish between the business and stock prices - that discounts the information on the AMAT (and most other) thread(s). To wit: perhaps the current economy of the sector doesn't 'deserve' its stock's to have lost 50-80% of their value, but the fact is, it happened! So, to paraphrase you statement, my basic disagreement with you is my perception of your failure to fully consider the non-business component that plays a huge role in determining stock prices: emotion. When fear takes hold, as it apparently has over the last 6 months, it doesn't matter what sort of logic one tries to invoke. And this takes me back to what Jurgis was stating in his post: it's a waste of time reading the AMAT thread since the huge emotional component of stock prices more often than not overrides any 'logic' to their level. And please note that while Jurgis did indeed discuss 4 points describing especially difficult visibility RIGHT NOW, his statement regarding the AMAT thread was, Finally, I think that reading AMAT thread is rather useless. Thread predictions are as bad as those of the analysts or industry sources. And that's not because of the posters qualifications. Thread has great minds at work. The chip + equip demand is simply unpredictable. Information waterfall only adds to confusion and irrational decisions. This was a statement about the usefulness of the information on the AMAT thread IN GENERAL. He was NOT applying the viewpoint ONLY to the current 'difficult juncture'. He was making a GENERAL STATEMENT about the usefulness of the thread. In fact, the 'difficult juncture' was actually about 6 month ago when everyone should have sold. If you read Jurgis’ post differently, fine. But my interpretation, consistent with all of my other posts, is as ‘reasoned’, ‘careful,’ ‘conservative’, ‘humble’, and ‘accurate’, as any. The fact that you're polite and I'm an S.O.B. in my responses is, IMO, beside the point. I've presented lucid and exacting posts and I maintain the same level of circumspection as yourself...or any other reasonably intelligent poster on SI. You perceive a certain 'missplaced' statement on my part. I wouldn't have made it if I felt it were 'missplaced'; contrary to opinion, however, I welcome your P.O.V. We all will defend our positions, Cary. And I’m not sure what your final sentence means, but if you’re trying to convert me to a choir boy...ain’t gonna work: I was born in Philly...where our favorite son is Frank Rizzo and our common language is BOOish. Scott BTW, I'm not the only one believing Klic's current difficulties are not company specific Message 14716379 IMO, if investors are of the ilk to avoid Klic, then there is little logic to enter back into any SEMs, including AMAT. However, if the extreme bearishness around the sector - with Klic at the far extreme - is the usual contrary indicator, it's probably time to get back in. The most compelling reason to re-enter Klic soon is the frequency I've read the term 'dead-money' associated with this stock over past couple of days. In fact I challenge anyone to find anything positive about Klic. This is kinda like the put/call ratio hitting 3!