To: Curtis E. Bemis who wrote (14076 ) 11/8/2000 6:35:30 PM From: pat mudge Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 24042 Three companies (including JDSU) today say NO SLOWDOWN in fiber optic components. JDSU, Bookham and Finisar. Dan Dorfman, aka. Paul Sagawa awaits the recount in Florida. I've spent the last three days at the AEA conference and yesterday AMCC's CEO spoke and said there was no slow-down in business, no push-back in orders, no scary signs anywhere. Bookings are strong, 10gig/OC-l92 driving demand, comfortable with guidance, insatiable demand for bandwidth, addressing $7.5 billion market in next 3 years, 10-gig is sweet-spot for designs, 40 gig sampling, have 1000 employees now and will have 2500 in next 18 months, 1st half revenues are equal to all of last year. . . The presentation couldn't have been any stronger. A few comments from a few other companies: Triquent [TQNT]: grew 5X in last 5 years; will grow 10X over the next 6 years. Adding 60K sq. ft facility in Richardson, Tx, had $300 million in revs this year, will be $1 billion when factory is fully operational. Emcore [EMKR]: seeing 80% revenue growth, y/y, could be the same next year. MOCVD sales booked through April. Backlog in June was $105 million, in September 125 million, and in October added 25 million more --- all in materials. Emulex [EMLX]: SANs 80% CAGR; NAS 60% CAGR; 10-12% growth quarterly with OEMs. Powerwave [PWAV]: nearly 1 billion subscribers by 2002; 1.4 billion by 2004; did $32.6 million in revs in first half vs. $32.0 all of last year; new facility allows 2X capacity, will double sales force. TranSwitch [TXCC]: first nine months better than all last year; hiring 2 people per week, visibility great, revs. up 20% q/q and up 104% y/y; Asia and Europe ramping. Siemens strong, Europe has further upside, international just beginning, Asia tremendous opportunity, what began in US is moving to Europe and Asia. Anaren [ANEN]: 55% real growth in sales (backing out acquisitions), positive BtoB, $40mil backlog, 50% more manufacturing capacity by fall 2001. Keithley [KEI]: revs up 50% y/y, earnings up 145% y/y; focus on component mfgrs, demand going up; growth in Pacific basin, Europe also strong, up 60%; Optoelectronics will grow more than other segments. [This is a beautifully run company with a long history of supplying high-reliability test equipment to research institutions and semiconductor mfgrs. Now moving into optoelectronics.] I don't know when market sentiment will turn, but I do know there are some beautiful companies I'd like to own when it does. Pat