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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (43184)	11/8/2000 8:45:21 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

I know you are on the ball Monty... I was just speaking about TA in general when stocks are falling apart. Bulls like Gary are always calling double tops and break outs and stuff on CSCO. That's all fine and dandy. Or for example....AMZN...they all warn me not to stay short amzn. Cause of a fall rally? and good TA on amzn. The fact is I think AMZN will go broke and I want to short it to zero. An amzn short is money in the bank...i think. siliconinvestor.com If you haven't read the rap tonight, I would like to recommend it. I really know how Fleck feels right now. I'm scared. Not for my money and profits but for the state of the economy and the world I live in. Scared for my 6 month old daughter. Scared for how much massive lay offs and bankruptcy's. Scared of real pain...terrible pain in the economy. A real estate crash too. Here's a quote from Fleck tonight. "I would like to reiterate that I don' t say these things because I want them to happen, I say them because it is almost preordained that they will given the size of the bubble that has been created and the number of participants that have become involved. The stock market is the economy. It is on shaky ground and bad things are going to happen. In my opinion, it is not debatable and the die has been cast." That's exactly how I feel. I continue to post here through good days and bad...attacked at ever turn...but that's fine. I'm confident that in the end I will be proven right by the market and the reckless longs of this board with thier dip buying calls will be on their knees. I wonder if they will ever admit when they are selling...we heard Ed Forrest say he bought more the other day at $47. When will he sell that or the big position he claims to carry. What about Gary...the Phoenix...He claimed to have dumped LU at $60 and what he owns now he got under $20. He never announced the sale at the time though. How about NT will they sell that too? I hope they don't just vanish from the thread but have the courage to come here and admit being completely and totally wrong about csco and the like. About the fact that they don't understand that the "new economy" is built on debt and that it will be taken down over the next years. I truly hope that we do make peace at some point and the bulls are man enough to admit they are wrong. That they have been reckless when they call the bottom and make statements about "little downside risk". The more I read and the more I look actual numbers and historical trends the more I get scared. This is really really bad. I will disclose that I am not short CSCO. Or any telco right now. I will trade with the futures each day and short the weak sector on weakness in the futures and buy strong sectors when the futures rally. I think the effect of the NAS going through 3000 to 2500 will lead to it going to 1500 next year. I think the DOW and S&P will be cut in half over the next couple of years and the effect that has on the economy will most likely lead it lower or leave it as dead money for years to follow. Look at AT&T...I think that was the worst news of the day for the economy and the market. They are in trouble. Big fat debt. Lower credit ratings...seems they could go to junk status in the coming year. They are dumping assets to pay off debt. Could this be a start of a trend? We all know how these tech companies invest in each other and have massive unrealised gains from investments....the financial comunity looks at their debt to asset ratio. As the investments lose value they get down graded...They then have to sell. I think this will drive the market lower. As more companies are forced to dump stock to make the numbers or service debt. Gains from investments have lead to major padding on the earnings of companies like CSCO, INTC, IBM and MSFT. They will be have to realize more and more gains to keep making the numbers. Well, this post is far too long....I could go on and on and often do...but truthfully...there is so many problems looming on the horizon. This market and economy is a house of cards built on debt. It will come down piece by piece and can only end very very terribly. One last note....I will be made fun of by bulls for this post I'm sure...they love to say that I am calling for the "end of the world". It's not that at all. I'm calling for the end of the biggest bubble in or stock markets history. I think this will prove to be worse then 1929. Demographics now will make it worse. Baby boomers need to retire.... Sorry to sound so bleak, Bambs