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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: k.ramesh who wrote (1423)	11/9/2000 9:37:18 PM
From: TraderGreg	Respond to of 6710

That is bizarre...Law of Large numbers and regression to the mean should have played here. When the first batch of counties leaned to Gore, I expected the next batch to lean to Bush, but the trend towards Gore continued. Suspecting something systemic, I performed a cursory review of the data: This is very simplistic but it worked out like this: For the 65 counties I have data on: Bush won 47 counties, Gore won 18 counties. Of the 47 Bush won, Gore improved his count in 20 of them, no change in 9, and Bush improved in 18. Of the 18 Gore won, Gore improved his count in 9 of them, no change in 6, and Bush improved in 3. Gore's biggest gains were in Palm Beach(where he won), Pinellas(where he also won), Duval(won by Bush), and Gadsden(won by Bush). Bush's biggest gains were in 4 counties of which he won 3. I honestly don't see anything bizarre about this, so I guess you might say the changes were insignificant in relation to the total vote count. TG

To: k.ramesh who wrote (1423)	11/9/2000 10:15:51 PM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

How far to pursue this? What a dilemma. Trailing by a small amount of votes, knowing that there is a big batch of votes not included due to voter error and/or local gov't. incompetence. So close, but yet so far away...and what is the will of the American people...people who over the years have lost patience. Rush, rush, rush...get it done yesterday. We don't want to drag this thing on. Does he go all out and take the most extreme measures to resolve this or does he play the moderation game and end the fight when the recount is complete? What to do? Remember, this is for the biggest office in the world. Can anyone help here? What would Sir Winston say? "We shall fight on the beaches. We shall fight on the landing grounds. We shall fight in the fields, and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills. We shall never surrender!" "You ask what is our aim? I can answer in one word: Victory, victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road will be; for without victory, there is no survival." ... Let us, therefore, brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, 'This was their finest hour." And from another great American: "Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice; moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue." Senator Barry Goldwater, 1964 (1909-1998) TG