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Technology Stocks : METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (2530)	11/10/2000 1:26:41 PM
From: Sherman Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3376

MCOM spent $163 million last quarter on infrastructure buildout, and they still have $800 million cash on hand per the Josephthal presentation link on their IR page. This presentation also debunks the 1xRT/EDGE myth. metricom.com

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (2530)	11/10/2000 2:31:07 PM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3376

And that's just to break even on an operating basis. MCOM's cash will be exhausted by early 2001. This adds up to the implosion under way... Hmmmmm.....But nothing in telecom is ever this simple, now is it? Particularly where the backers of this company are concerned. Be that as it may, I've noticed you have a tendency to characterize things in a manner inverted to those who take the bullish approach. That is, you assume the worst case (where they assume the best), and then "freeze frame" this perspective without regard for the fundamental dynamic of the underlying issues. And I've noticed this idiosyncrasy has sometimes served you well; and other times it hasn't. As for me the bottom line is I throw both your, and the hyper bullish longs, perspectives out the window and use the rationale of the logical middle. They've got monies to meet their needs for now, and the future cannot yet be determined. But meanwhile MCOM's doing the best they can to expand their market, and going forward their reselling community looks set to hustle it from here (check this coming Mondays news announcement vis-a-vie MSFT, etc.). I suggest folks not go too far out on either the bull or the short limb at this point until the fog lifts; and for cripes sake stay AWAY from margining this issue!! The fog should be lifting by about mid-2001. Meanwhile, I'll play the intraday "stuff" as well as begin building a nibble of a longer term speculative position starting at current levels on down. Let's talk again in June of next year about how things have shaped up. John~

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (2530)	11/10/2000 4:05:36 PM
From: Rich Wolf	Respond to of 3376

Redo your math. Not only will capex drop considerably a year from now, but opex won't be what you think either, once the majority of the build is done. Only residual builds, to increase capacity on an as-needed basis. Marketing to be done by resellers. Metricom just maintains and expands the network, also upgrading to 384kbps average throughput to all users. Collecting $3600/user over 500,000 users would provide $2/sh revenue, fully diluted. Factor in another 20% worst-case dilution to raise the $300-500M for Phase III via more preferred stock, and you still have healthy revenues. These kind of sub numbers are not unrealistic for two years out. JMHO.