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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maverick who wrote (18616)	11/10/2000 4:04:38 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Maverick: I,too, am curious about that 38% and 24% reference...All in all, sounds like another banner year in store for AMD!

To: Maverick who wrote (18616)	11/10/2000 4:54:13 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: "JC's AMD analyst CC transcript" * AMD will announce a 1.50GHz product in Q2 This is actually a little of a downer. Even accepting Dirk's assertion that the 1.20GHz Athlon is superior to the 1.50GHz Pentium 4, it is uncool that AMD (well, Jerry) said a few months ago that they'd be at 1.50GHz in Q1. * The server variant of the Mustang core, expected at one time to becalled "Athlon Ultra", was nowhere to be found here. It appears that the recent rumour of Mustang [server variant] being knocked off in favour of more of a lean on K8 might have been true. Of course, the fact that AMD has not really penetrated the business market at all would have hurt their chances of Mustang being a success in its target market, but this still is a slight disappointment. * Palomino, the processor with the Mustang core and Athlon branding, will be announced around the end of this quarter, with volume availability by the end of Q1. {===========================} Slip Sliding Away !!

To: Maverick who wrote (18616)	11/11/2000 1:50:48 PM
From: jamok99	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

Maverick and JC - Thanks for the summary of the CC - I have a couple thoughts about the consequences that the delay of 1.5mhz represents: 1. The last thing in the world AMD needs is lowered credibility. I didn't think it could get much lower, but there you have it. Another opportunity to change their image with analysts (and businesses/server markets - who wants to take a chance on an unproved company whose word can't be relied on? AMD seems to be following Intel's lead in vapor-launches/delays - duron infrastructure, SMP, 1.5 ghz, etc.)turned to their own disadvantage. 2. While it's nice that Dirk Meyer thinks a 1.2 gig Athlon will compete with a 1.5 gig P4, the average consumer doesn't go that far into the numbers - only droids like us. Clear leads are what AMD needs to establish itself (best if it were both in product availability and speed), and this is clear as mud. 3. Both Intel and AMD seem to be in a race to see who can bumble-fck their way to the finish line last. One possible, and damaging, outcome is that both companies 'lower-down' performance to meet the expectations of analysts and the street (as manifest by today's stock valuation), reinforcing analyst's impressions that they were right all along. The firm belief that most of us on this thread had, that AMD was an undiscovered and unfairly discounted gem, the truth of whose value would become undeniably clear as they blew-away the myopic forecasts of the street, itself gets blown away in the process. The perception (fact?) that we are in a slowing growth environment for pc's sure doesn't help the probabilities of this scenario becoming fact. 4. The good news - the effects of this mostly self-inflicted damage would seem to be already priced into the stock - so the one positive is that downside risk is probably limited - it's hard to imagine the stock with a pe of 4 - but not hard to imagine that it could have a pe of 8-9 if performance/promises continue to suffer, and we end up at the bottom of the semi cycle. EDIT - Jerry was true to his word this time - he said* he'd have some 'big surprises' for us towards the end of this year!