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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carson who wrote (62214)	11/11/2000 5:12:54 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

John, Nice to see some contrarian opinion as contrast to the very bearish sentiment prevalent at this time. Yours may be the only post considering the possibility that Friday may have been a short term low as far as I have read lately. Actually, last week I predicted that Friday would be a low in the $compx. This prediction was made while a rally was still in effect and posts were decidedly more bullish than now. It was not a reasonable prediction at the time in the face of expectations of an election rally. Well, I got that low I was expecting. I doubt that my prediction received much more than a few raised eyebrows and a chuckle or two...maybe worse. I considered this likely possibility beforehand and decided I would not let my fear of ridicule prevent me from making an observation out loud. Even if it was a seemingly ridiculous prediction based on observations of lunar cycles and apparent correlations in equity prices. I will say however, that I would not have for a nanosecond considered making such statements if I have not been observing and studying for some time the phenomenon I suggested. As a reasonably intelligent individual, I relish the role of laughingstock as much as the next guy...not much. I can have the last laugh if there is one as I put my $$ where my mouth was and let's just say my portfolio had another good week. The question now is will we go lower? I do not function in terms of absolutes; I will never be caught saying the market WILL do this or that. The best I can offer is that I function in an environment which considers observation, reason, analysis, statistical probability. In short, I had an expectation for a low on Friday 11/10/2000. We got one. Thus, I feel there is more than a tiny probability the markets will rally Monday. I can offer at this point hardly a morsel of analysis to support this conjecture. One look at the daily chart of $compx has me shaking my head in disbelief that Friday could possibly be a short term low. The close at the lows, the black weekly candle on the chart....nothing I see on the charts provides one shred of hope that we will not just plunge into the abyss on Monday. Only the level of doom and gloom and widespread expectation that Monday we take the dive gives me hope that the crowd will again be wrong. In any case, once again I find myself a contrarian swimming against the current. As it is becoming quite profitable, I am getting more comfortable in this role. So for what's it's worth (and I've already been told not worth even one grain of salt), I too am of the opinion that we rally next week. Don't know why, don't know how. Go ahead and laugh. Might as well. I already am. Regards and Best Wishes to all, Eichler

To: John Carson who wrote (62214)	11/12/2000 3:08:04 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

John I also anticipate a reflex rally it seems fear is all over the place. On top of that we had a full moon and I thing we had a forced "tax selling effect". It seems all Perma Bulls turned to mice recently. As bad as the squabling seems to be it actually means nothing to the economy and IMHO if the lead now will go to Gore the NAZ will explode to the upside. At least he is, as many believe, a known entity. ..... as to your other comments I am not sure. Bush promissed stock market SSecurity funds why is not hte market moving up?? I realy do not know. BWDIK Haim