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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: re3 who wrote (36444)	11/11/2000 1:49:18 PM
From: Gary M. Reed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

Ike, Yeah, the reasoning they provide me for wanting to buy this crap is filled with flaws. One guy was telling me he thought there was no way ARBA could go under $100. I don't know a lot about ARBA, but I told him, "if ARBA went down to $20 per share, it would still be trading at ~50x 2002 EPS estimates. And those EPS estimates haven't yet factored in that new e-commerce site startups (ARBA's bread and butter) will slow dramatically due to the capital markets not providing them with ClownBux to start up. Not to mention that ORCL is one of ARBA's competitors and will certainly use their capital muscle to erode ARBA's market share." His response was, "yeah but ARBA was at $170 a few months ago--it just seems like a safe bet that there's no way it'll go under $100." J6P's current mindset is downright scary--I sure wouldn't want to be holding those Ditech Funding 120% second mortgages, that's for damn sure. In the early 90's, I was a gaming analyst at a small investment banking firm--that was during the time when the upstart casino companies were going bonkers (think Casino Magic, President Casinos, Casino America, etc.). Seeing the current Nasdung environment seems like deja vu all over again for me. Those stocks were priced as if casino gaming would be legalized in all 50 states. I remember one day, Casino Magic announced they were putting a McDonalds in their Biloxi casino (a non-event)--the stock went up 10 points that day on the news (recognize the simularities to the tech sector in '99???). Then when the stocks did their initial selloff, J6P was clamoring to buy the dips...a year later, anyone who had bought the dips was holding onto stocks that had hat-sized prices (hehe, or in many cases, socket wrench size prices!). Scary how J6P is always blind to recognizing underlying value (or lack thereof)--their definition of value is and always has been "this stock was at $150, it's now at $70--therefore it must be a steal."

To: re3 who wrote (36444)	11/11/2000 1:51:11 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

i don't think it will be too palatable if j6p sees the nas with a 2 handle... At the risk of being accused of being a Clown here, I'd venture to say that a drop to 2600 and a selling climax would be extremely bullish. You start to get bearish when companies are reporting record earnings and reaching all time highs, you start to get bullish when you have earnings shortfalls and new lows. Maybe this simple fact is too contrary to your hope for the worldwide financial collapse, you know the one needed to make those mining stocks worth something. Of course the generals in the NAZ are about to be replaced. Anyone could see two years ago that the percentage growth of their stock prices was higher than the growth of their revenues/earnings. Meanwhile companies with much higher growth rates are emerging to take their place. There is always something to buy, the same way there is always something to sell. If you'd step away from PM hell for a while maybe you'd be able to see that. -g-