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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (111800)	11/12/2000 2:56:09 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

>> The naz is poised to test 2800 tomorrow. Can't disagree. But ... In the ancient past (a year ago), I and many people here held the idea that after a few down days, margin calls would kick in, triggering an even more severe down day, which would trigger more margin calls, and then we'd get a monster down day that would clear the decks of most speculation. Did last Thursday/Friday qualify as deck clearing days ? Twice this year we had 600 point drops in both the NASDAQ and DOW. But they were at higher levels. Now that I am a year older, and a few $100K lighter, I've refined my concept a little. I still think margin calls are relevant, but I am not convinced they are the deciding factor. I think it is more of a conscious decision by fund managers to buy (or refrain from buying). In this new and improved model, the critical signal is encoded in how much volume is associated with the mid-day rallies that occur. So on Monday (or Tuesday) assuming we get a rally, some brave soul will start buying marquee-name techs like CSCO or INTC or ORCL. Then the other managers will either endorse that motion by buying (and volume will be high, and the rally will gain momentum for a couple hundred points). Or stay on the side, (volume will be low), the brave buyer will reverse, the rally will turn into a drop with high volume. So in this concept, if we get a mere 200-pt drop on Monday/Tuesday, it means the big sell-off is still ahead, and 2500 is assured. I've shifted most of my account to semi-equip and chip stocks now. And I hope my pessimistic scenario will not materialize.