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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter_luc who wrote (18817)	11/13/2000 11:35:48 AM
From: EricRR	Respond to of 275872

And then, so far it seems that Microsoft has no interest in supporting AMD X86-64. But without the backing of Microsoft the Hammer will loose a lot of its attraction Micorsoft will support it, because everyone wants AMD to survive. Intel has proven just too dangerous a "partner" in the past. Also the future of IA-64 is in doubt. This is because HP has yet to commit by planning the demise of PA RISC. Right now there are 3 new PA RISC chips in the pipeline.

To: peter_luc who wrote (18817)	11/13/2000 11:50:15 AM
From: combjelly	Respond to of 275872

"But wouldn't a 2 GHz P4 in Q1 totally destroy AMD? " Or it might prompt AMD to actually introduce a 1.5GHz Palomino in Q1 as originally promised. It is my perception that AMD is holding back on the clock rate increase more for marketing reasons than technical ones. It would be wise for them to avoid what happened this year, a push to 1GHz in February and then nothing for 6-7 months. From the slides, it looks as if the Palomino core will top at around 1.7GHz in 0.18 micron and will need a shrink to 0.13 micron to exceed that. Since 0.13 micron is currently slated for Q4, a Q1 introduction of 1.5GHz would mean only two speed bumps in the two quarters leading up to Q4. Think of x86-64 as AMD's 80386. It is there for those who want to invest for the future, i.e. the corporate market. The 80386 did not have any support to speak of at introduction, but it was bought despite the fact that 80286's had a big price/performance advantage because it was viewed as "future ready". In addition, it looks as if the ClawHammer will have a performance advantage, something the 80386 didn't have at it's introduction. So Microsoft support of 64 bit mode at introduction won't be critical.

To: peter_luc who wrote (18817)	11/13/2000 11:52:37 AM
From: fp_scientist	Respond to of 275872

At a public address that Hector Ruiz gave last week at Rice University, he said two things that may be of interest to this thread: 1. AMD main volume of processors is above 1GHz right now. 2. Talking about the fast pace of change in technology, he said something like "last year we introduced a 600 MHz Athlon, we are currently shipping 1.2 GHz, and we will be at 4GHz next year". He then teased his PhD thesis director who was in the audience saying something like "when I was a student, we were told that GHz were microwave frequencies, not processor frequencies!" These comments were made to a largely non-technical audience. His talk was about "self-worth, education & technology." His 4GHz remark could simply be a lab sample, not a shippable product next year. Nevertheless, he sounded very confident about AMD's position in the microprocessor market. FWIW, fp

To: peter_luc who wrote (18817)	11/13/2000 11:57:26 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Peter, eally hope that you are right. But wouldn't a 2 GHz P4 in Q1 totally destroy AMD? I have to admit that I am shocked by the Register article. Intel makes (I think) about 25 million desktop CPUs per quarter. All depends on the percentage of these that will be P4 and when. When Mustang arrives and power consumption drops, AMD can resume the MHz ramp. AMD will need 1.6 GHz Athlon / Palomino to keep up with 2 GHz P4. You may recall that in the Japanese language interview, the AMD employee said that Palomino can get to 2 GHz. If he meant that .18u Palomino can get to 2 GHz, AMD should be safe. We should know more about the pony line and P4 in next few weeks. And then, so far it seems that Microsoft has no interest in supporting AMD X86-64. But without the backing of Microsoft the Hammer will loose a lot of its attraction. Hammer will be a fine 32bit processor as well. It will run Windows 200x just fine. I think the Win-64 will have a lot of rough edges and will not be ready for prime time for consumer PCs. ClawHammer will be a mass market product, and Microsoft will need a more mass market OS for it, so it may take some time. I wonder if ClawHammer will be compatible with Socket A infrastructure and existing chipsets. That would be very helpful for a trouble free launch. Joe

To: peter_luc who wrote (18817)	11/13/2000 11:58:04 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

re:<2 GHz P4> Intel gave power consumption figures for 1.3 and 1.4 GHz P4's at the IDF. I don't have the figures handy, but 2 GHz on 0.18u would be next to impossible without a shrink. Petz

To: peter_luc who wrote (18817)	11/13/2000 12:07:24 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 275872

Peter_luc, You should not be shocked at all. We had a whole discussion here that Intel is likely to be yielding much better than 1.4Ghz and that is low end of yield curve. But AMD droids continue to believe that PIV is junk and Intel will release 1.2-1.3Ghz chips in Q1 2001. Unfortunately the PIV may well yield better than expected. The AMD AThlons seems maxed out at 1.2-1.3Ghz. This is clear if 80% of AThlons yield at Ghz and better - so 20% is at 900Mhz grade. And we know that Fab 25 maxes out at 1.0-1.1 Ghz. Q1 could be tough. I just sold all my AMD for a loss just know. And bought all Intel. Heavily on margin. regards, Kash

To: peter_luc who wrote (18817)	11/13/2000 12:45:42 PM
From: hmaly	Respond to of 275872

Peter '''''''re..But wouldn't a 2 GHz P4 in Q1 totally destroy AMD? I have to admit that I am shocked by the Register article.<<< No, according to AMD's CC, Dirk said that the 1.2 ghz would be about even with a 1.5 ghz P4. AMD's 1.5 by next June should be close to a 1.8 ghz P4. Being as P4 runs on Rambus; until regular memory chipsets are introduced, P4 will be a niche chip,. By the time DDR ramps up 3q-01, clawhammer will already be demonstrating. Frankly, I think it is the P4 which will have a short term lead in performance and Intel will have to come up with its own version of 2 cores on a chip. That coupled with Intels need to outsell AMD 4-1 just to maintain its current market share means P4 will be critical for Intel, not so for AMD as AMD will still control the lower end. <<<<<<And then, so far it seems that Microsoft has no interest in supporting AMD X86-64. But without the backing of Microsoft the Hammer will loose a lot of its attraction. According to reports, it won't be difficult to upgrade Win. 2000 to 64 bit. Far easier than getting the 1a-64 going. Microsoft still has a yr. Linux I believe has already been computer tested.