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To: The Ox who wrote (78965)	11/14/2000 1:20:18 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael, I read your post with interest and it sounds reasonable. Volume by price also gives intuitive support. chart.bigcharts.com None of this is easy to quantify. gottfried

To: The Ox who wrote (78965)	11/14/2000 4:04:10 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael - I'm not sure I completely agree with the Street.com people either, but posted that because it it is true, it could make a big impact. 1) In looking at the Nasdaq, it will trade differently than slower moving indexes like the S&P and Dow. Many of those support level are over a year old. Some people who were happy to buy Intel at 30 in summer of 1999 probably sold it and bought three more times in 2000. With something like XOM (exxon mobil) the levels from 2-5 years are likely to be important. 2) The nasdaq just ripped going up the past 2 years, mostly fuel by excess liquidity provided by the Fed for the Aisa/Russia crisis and Y2K worries. Now most of that money is being pulled out by the Fed. Big battles take money. If we watch the mutual funds cash flows, margin and overseas fund flows, we should be able to tell if these levels can be defended. Today, I don't think they (mid 2000 levels) could be defended By January or Feb. there could be large 401k flows and a lower dollar & lower interest rates which would make the mid 2000s solid. 3) There seem to be growth investors and value investors, and a big gap in between. As Nasdaq breaks under 2900, and corporate earnings projections get pulled, growth & momentum investors will stay away. Value investors won't come in strongly until they see a real bottom and low forward P/e ratios. Once a stock falls out with the growth crowd, they drop a long way before buying starts again. I think we will see similar behavior with the indexes. 4)I think some of the support at 2850 came from the ESF/PPT and traders front-running or piggy-backing the PPT moves. The PPT people know and use the best technical & trading people on Wall Street, and seem to choose their battles (the levels they defend) carefully to avoid plunges. Usually, the market will then settle through those levels in the next week or so without much fanfare.. I'm not a good tape reader at all, prehaps some could comment in more detail. Check out the intraday performance of BKX, bank stock index, today. (Nov. 14) 5) I think the downward moves since September are getting worse. I don't think we'll see anything like April again. Michael - any insight on particular levels in the 2000 range ?