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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Knighty Tin who wrote (85444)11/14/2000 8:11:22 PM
From: Mohammed U. Karkanawi  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Mike,
OT
What's your opinion about AT&T now? It closed at $20 11/16 down 5/16 when the DOW was up 163.
I have been watching it going down, while biting my nails, for the last 7 months from $61 to $20 per share.
Will it ever recover?
What are the chances that it will go belly up like Pan Am? Should I get out of it, lick my wounds and thank God I am still alive?
Thanks in advance.
Mohammed



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (85444)11/14/2000 8:19:42 PM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
 
Mike,

From what I can tell this one is over. The Secretary of State of Florida will not be able to resist the pressure to accept the manual counts in democratic districts. I don't believe Bush will have enough write in votes to offset those heavily democratic districts.

I continue to believe that the biggest error the Bush team made was in not stressing above all else that a bunch of partisan (both sides) geezers counting 6 million votes without standards is not necessarily superior to an automated count "done twice" - despite the "known" flaws. I think that is a grey area.

In any event, the winner gets swept away in 4 years because even Greenspan, the IMF, foreign central banks, and Wall St lies, won't be able to put Humpty USA back together again when the Clinton/Gore/Greenspan/Rubin bubble starts to break. No way we get through 4 years.

So despite my strong personal distaste for Gore as a person, I think I am highly likely to get at least one wish filled. Those that are to blame for the economic mess will be in office when it blows and thus get blamed for it. The wealth transfer of the 90s will then finally be over.

Wayne



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (85444)11/14/2000 9:15:07 PM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
 
Mike,

I'll tell you my latest stock idea if you promise not to laugh at me or call me crazy. :-)

I am presently accumulating a significant position in Level 3 Communications. (LVLT)

Loads of debt.

Losing money hand over fist.

Profitability many years away at best.

Self destructive tendencies? Nope!

There will be just under 14 billion of capital invested at completion (already raised) in a state of the art communications network. About 10 billion of that will be invested in plant and equipment by year end or just after that. The network will be lit in stages starting mostly this quarter.

The balance sheet has plenty of cash that was accumulated during the spring when the techies were in orbit. So it appears to be fully financed until at least break even cash flow.

Management used the same business model to build MFS Communications (another network) years ago - which it then sold to Worldcomm at an "enormous premium" to it's replacement cost.

Management appears to be as ethical, honest, and competent as any I have seen. The stock options plan is based on the performance of the stock relative to the S&P500 and is FULLY expensed on the income statement. Nothing hidden. One member of the management team is on Berkshire Hathaway's board and is partners with BRKA in a business venture.

I am only mildly familiar with all the technical mumbo jumbo, but everything I have read leads me to believe that they have several advantages that will last a very long time - especially now that telecommunications stocks are in the crapper and capital will be very difficult to raise. Growth potential is enormous.

The management team is basically a construction firm out of Omaha. I doubt they want to operate the company for a long time. Much of the entire team's personal wealth is tied up in the company (MFS profits plus other) They will sell it at a premium to the replacment cost when the time is right.

It was selling for a market cap of just under 11 billion yesterday. Earlier this year it was hyped to death. I think they have the story right. Now the price is right too.

I think it is decent value play that offers enormous growth potential for free. Ho Ho Ho.

Wayne