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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (4598)	11/15/2000 2:00:53 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 196876

Eric: The number I quoted has nothing to do with sub growth. It has to do with the CONVERSION of existing customers with regular service to the wireless internet service. One thing is very important about projecting QCOm's growth rate with the low growth rate of companies like DDI or SKM. The transition from traditional cellular service to these new internet service based customer models is that you do not need more than 10% sub growth for QCOm to maintain it's 40% revenue growth. The conversion of existing customers to these new services will fuel high growth as the replacement of outdated handsets creates a reorder rate equal to 30% of the customer base each year. Actually, this number may be low now that companies like VZ are offering new handsets every 2 years. This may establish a 50% growth rate for reorders over the next 3 to 5 years as new technologies like 1X, gps, and other technologies become intrduced. In fact, this rotation of handsets clearly demonstrates the validity of gps as a more competitive market replacement to network based location services suggested by tERO. all of VZ's customers would have gps enabled handsets within 2 years, not the 3 or 4 years he picked out of the air. Look at the growth of companies like CSCO which maintained 60% growth rates in networking despite the unimpressive results of virtually any telecom service company. The growth of the installed base (10% to 12%) was far greater than CSCO growth rate as replacement cycles for old equipemnt demanded new technology platforms. The exact same is true for QCOM today. 10% growth for DDI, PCS, etc... equals a sustained growth of 50 or 60% for QCOM. We have 4 years of uninibited growth in revenues and EPS in front of us.

To: Eric L who wrote (4598)	11/15/2000 3:38:40 PM
From: Kent Rattey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196876

<Interesting. If you ever find a link for that or anything similar, please let me know.> Message 14633234 "Japanese mobile phone company KDDI, created by the merger of telecommunications companies KDD, DDI and IDO, has seen the number of people signing up for its Wap service soar since it installed technology that made the whole system work much faster." “Since then, subscriber numbers have soared. In January, there were less than one million people using it. Now there are almost four million.”