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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (85519)	11/15/2000 5:11:38 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Don, please follow madison.hss.cmu.edu and follow the links there. I find some of the papers quite compelling. If you have criticism of the stats work, do post it. To your points: the '96 result is a rhetorical red herring; I know I'm supposed to look at the raw totals, but you forget that 1996 was a different time in which Buchanan polled much better in FL statewide than in 2000; PBC was no outlier that year. I remain befuddled by the lack of expected "roll off" in the US senate vote vs the Gore vote. One of the papers explicitly compares the PBC Gore/Nelson vote against a control, Leon County -- this ends up buttressing the criticisms of the 'butterfly'. As for the FL state senate, I have no data, but can think of plenty of explanations. Recall: I am nonpartisan here (I hate both main candidates), but I do have an education in mathematics. I find the academic work convincing, with particular fondness for Henry Brady's paper (UCB link) and the Harvard one. FD: I've met Henry. -mb

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (85519)	11/15/2000 6:33:03 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Don, Other elections are irrelevant. In this election, Buchanan received no more than 500 or 600 votes in any Florida county, even the most conservative, which receiving 3400 votes in a predominantly Democratic district. Buchanan says he believes most of those votes were not intended for him. Over a thousand Palm Beach voters have signed affidavits saying that they meant to vote for Gore but think they voted for Buchanan. Saying that Buchanan really got those 3400 votes simply flies in the face of reality.